Vietnam Oil And Gas Upstream Market Size & Share Analysis - Growth Trends And Forecast (2025 - 2030)

Vietnam Oil And Gas Upstream Market Trends and Insights

Increasing Crude Oil Prices

Brent stability above USD 70 per barrel underpins the redevelopment of mature offshore fields, once hampered by high lifting costs. Operators now sanction enhanced-oil-recovery pilots in fractured reservoirs and justify long-reach sidetracks that increase incremental output without requiring new green-field infrastructure. PetroVietnam’s 2025 investment surge underscores renewed confidence in project economics, yet price support alone cannot counterbalance geological depletion. The Vietnam oil and gas upstream market, therefore, relies on both cost discipline and technology adoption to sustain margins.

Rising Domestic Gas Demand for Power

Electricity consumption is growing at an annual rate of 8%, and government policy mandates the retirement of coal between 2030 and 2040, creating an assured outlet for offshore gas. Decree 100/2025 compels power developers to source domestic gas under long-term contracts, stabilizing cash flows for upstream investors.^{[2]xaydungchinhsach.chinhphu.vn, “Decree 100/2025 on Gas-Fired Power,” chinhphu.vn} Integrated projects, such as Ca Voi Xanh, exemplify the shift, pairing 3 GW of capacity with dedicated subsea supply and reducing LNG import exposure. The Vietnam oil and gas upstream market, therefore, aligns increasingly with downstream power strategies.

New PSC Licensing Rounds

Block 15-1 and other newly tendered tracts show Hanoi’s intent to maintain exploration momentum in frontier basins rich in pre-Tertiary plays. Fiscal incentives balance foreign participation with local content, while accelerated commercialization clauses shrink payback windows. Extensions for mature assets, such as TGT and CNV, confirm regulatory pragmatism in maximizing national take from legacy reservoirs. Such moves underpin long-term reserve renewal in the Vietnam oil and gas upstream market.

Digital Subsurface Imaging Adoption

Artificial-intelligence-assisted seismic inversion now achieves 80% accuracy in predicting fractured granite, slashing the odds of dry holes. Look-ahead VSP techniques cut depth uncertainty to 7 meters, a decisive margin in thin carbonate targets.^{[3]OnePetro, “Axial Oscillation Drilling Success in Vietnam,” onepetro.org} Early adopters report double-digit drilling-time savings, positioning digital capacity as a critical differentiator across the Vietnam oil and gas upstream industry.

Complex Permitting and Bureaucracy

Multi-agency approvals can stretch final-investment-decision timelines by more than a year, inflating overhead on marginal prospects.^{[4]VietnamPlus, “Regulatory Bottlenecks Slow Investment,” vietnamplus.vn} High compliance costs weigh heavily on smaller operators in the Vietnam oil and gas upstream market, prompting some to defer projects or seek alliances that share regulatory engagement burdens.

South China Sea Territorial Disputes

Cable-cutting and survey-vessel harassment episodes compel companies to factor geopolitical risk into their insurance and financing models. Certain majors have relinquished contested blocks to avoid diplomatic friction, curbing exploration breadth and leaving resource potential untapped.

Segment Analysis

By Location of Deployment: Offshore Supremacy Drives Market Evolution

Offshore developments generated 77.9% of 2024 revenue and are expected to post a 5.9% CAGR through 2030, underscoring their centrality to the Vietnam oil and gas upstream market. The depths of 50–200 meters in Nam Con Son and Cuu Long host the bulk of the remaining reserves, requiring higher-specification rigs, subsea tie-backs, and floating processing units. Record 3-km horizontal sections drilled with axial-oscillation tools demonstrate how innovation offsets basement hardness.

Growth relies on integrated gas hubs connected to shore-based power plants, which monetize output through first oil capacity payments rather than volatile commodity pricing. First-oil at Dai Hung Phase 3—flowing 6,000 bpd ahead of schedule—illustrates project-management maturation and validates shared-infrastructure models that suppress unit costs. Even so, crew shortages and weather downtime complicate schedules, demanding robust contingency planning across the Vietnam oil and gas upstream industry.

Onshore acreage, constrained by urban expansion and the decline of mature fields, contributes modest and stable volumes but attracts limited new capital. Operators favor low-cost workovers and water-alternating-gas schemes to sustain plateaus; yet, the resource upside remains marginal compared to offshore prospects. Thus, offshore execution excellence will continue to determine value creation within the Vietnam oil and gas upstream market.

Note: Segment shares of all individual segments available upon report purchase

By Resource Type: Natural Gas Transformation Reshapes Industry Dynamics

Natural gas accounted for 60.2% of 2024 revenue and is forecast to grow at a 6.1% CAGR, solidifying its dominance in the Vietnam oil and gas upstream market. Output is slated to increase from 8 bcm in 2025 to more than 20 bcm by 2034, as Ca Voi Xanh, Block B, and Nam Du/U Minh ramp up production. Gas sale agreements featuring 80 mmcfd take-or-pay terms ensure predictable cash flows and facilitate project financing.

Crude oil, although still essential for refinery feedstock, is facing a gradual decline due to reservoir depletion and limited success in discoveries. Condensate streams linked to gas developments provide high-value naphtha for the petrochemical industry, partly offsetting oil volume erosion. The Vietnam oil and gas upstream industry is increasingly rewarding operators capable of orchestrating entire gas value chains, from subsea wellheads to power-plant burner tips.

By Well Type: Conventional Dominance with Unconventional Emergence

Conventional completions accounted for 92.5% of 2024 production, mirroring Vietnam’s structural-trap geology. Nonetheless, unconventional and enhanced-recovery projects are growing at a 6.8% CAGR as horizontal drilling, multi-stage fracturing, and polymer flooding unlock tight carbonates and attic oil. Pilot re-fracs in vintage Cuu Long wells have lifted recovery factors by 3–5 percentage points, signaling a meaningful additive stream for the Vietnam oil gas upstream market.

Scaling unconventional success will hinge on cost reductions, data analytics for high-grade candidates, and regulatory clarity on hydraulic-fracturing chemicals. As service providers accumulate experience, learning-curve benefits could accelerate adoption, diversifying the production base beyond traditional structures.

Note: Segment shares of all individual segments available upon report purchase

By Service: Development Focus with Exploration Growth

Development and production offerings generated 65.4% of market revenue in 2024, reflecting operators’ priority on maximizing output from sanctioned fields through digital well surveillance, artificial-lift optimization, and facility debottlenecking. Ten-year integrated-service contracts provide vendors with visibility to invest in specialized equipment suited to Vietnam’s metocean conditions.

Exploration service spending is expanding at a 6.4% CAGR as frontier seismic surveys and slim-hole appraisal wells target pre-Tertiary prospects in Phu Khanh and the deep Song Hong. Operators deploy multi-attribute AI workflows to tighten prospect ranking and cut dry-hole exposure. Decommissioning, although nascent, is poised to scale after 2030, when first-generation platforms reach their economic end-of-life, potentially opening a new revenue stream within the Vietnam oil and gas upstream market.

Geography Analysis

The Nam Con Son Basin accounted for 38% of the nation's hydrocarbon output in 2024, primarily driven by Dai Hung, Block B, and associated gas pipelines that supply power plants near Ho Chi Minh City. Cuu Long followed with 27%, where water-flood optimization and sidetrack drilling mitigate natural decline. Song Hong and Phu Khanh rank as high-risk, high-reward frontiers—initial 3-D surveys reveal promising carbonate buildups but also deep-water challenges.

Operators prefer areas firmly inside Vietnam's exclusive economic zone to minimize diplomatic friction. Blocks overlapping China's nine-dash line remain underexplored despite large gas shows because insurers and lenders demand punitive premiums. Joint development dialogues with Thailand in the Gulf of Thailand suggest pragmatic resource-sharing avenues that could replicate the successes of the mid-2020s between Malaysia and Thailand.

Infrastructure dictates project timing: developers favor tie-backs to the Nam Con Son trunk line to curtail capex and accelerate first gas. Environmental permitting for new shore approaches is more stringent near tourism corridors, such as Nha Trang, steering pipeline landfalls toward industrial clusters. Cyclones north of Da Nang necessitate heavier FPSO moorings and evacuation protocols, which increase opex. As acreage shifts into deeper waters, gaps in helideck logistics and emergency response capabilities will need to be rectified to maintain safety records across the Vietnam oil and gas upstream market.