Solid Recovered Fuel (SRF) Market Size & Share Analysis - Growth Trends and Forecast (2026 - 2031)

Global Solid Recovered Fuel (SRF) Market Trends and Insights

Landfill Diversion and Energy-Recovery Mandates

Landfill reduction targets are shifting residual waste toward recovery routes and supporting feedstock availability for the solid recovered fuel market. The EU framework requires member states to limit municipal waste sent to landfill to 10% or less by 2035. A 2024 study for the EU Publications Office found that potential SRF production could exceed the estimated maximum capacity for SRF uptake in several member states.^{[1]European Investment Bank and Publications Office of the European Union, “Managing Refuse-Derived and Solid Recovered Fuels,” Publications Office of the European Union, op.europa.eu} This places greater importance on processing capacity and stable industrial offtake than on waste availability alone. Operators that develop SRF-capable plants before regulatory deadlines tighten can secure access to residual material in their local catchment areas. France's sector produced nearly 1 million tonnes each year and had a target of 2.5 million to 3 million tonnes by 2030, although AFOCO identified a EUR 1 billion investment gap after the cancellation of the ADEME project fund in 2025. 

Fossil-Fuel Substitution in Cement Manufacturing

Cement kilns remain a dependable source of demand for the solid recovered fuel market because their high operating temperatures can accommodate qualified waste-derived fuels. Austria's cement industry achieved an alternative fuel rate of 88.8% in 2025, rising from 87.7% in 2024, while conventional fuel inputs fell 6.4% year over year.^{[2]Österreichischer Verband der Zementindustrie, “Kennzahlen der Zementindustrie 2025,” VÖZ, zement.at} A 2025 peer-reviewed study found that SRF substitution in cement kilns can reduce process greenhouse gas emissions by 200 kg CO2-equivalent per tonne of cement, with 80% substitution identified as the optimal point for environmental benefit. WASTE AND BIOMASS VALORIZATION The biogenic carbon fraction in MSW-derived SRF can lower fossil-carbon liability for cement operators covered by the EU ETS. Producers therefore have a stronger reason to provide certified fuel rather than lower-grade refuse-derived fuel. France's cement sector raised thermal substitution to 55% in 2024 from 52% in 2023 and stated a target of 80% by 2030. RECY.NET

EU ETS Fossil-Carbon Traceability and Premium SRF Demand

Fossil-carbon monitoring under the EU ETS is making fuel documentation more important in the solid recovered fuel market. Geminor reported that fuel quality, fossil carbon, and associated costs were central strategic issues for its 2.14 million tonne SRF and RDF operation across 9 countries in 2025.^{[3]Geminor, “ESG Report 2025,” Geminor, esg.geminor.no} The company began a 2025-2028 research program to develop sampling methods aligned with ISO requirements for residual waste carbon measurements. Producers that verify a lower fossil-carbon fraction can better serve facilities facing tighter carbon costs. ISO 21644 and related methodologies provide methods for determining biomass content in recovered solid fuels. This raises the value of radiocarbon analysis, consistent sampling, and auditable data across the supply chain. Smaller producers may find it harder to meet these requirements without shared testing capacity or investment in digital traceability.

Investment in Advanced Sorting and SRF Quality Infrastructure

Investment in optical sorting and digital plant controls is improving fuel consistency in the solid recovered fuel market. PreZero opened a EUR 42 million facility in Barcelona in June 2025, with an annual intake capacity of 190,000 tonnes and expected SRF output of 70,000 tonnes. The plant uses 6 Pellenc ST optical sorters and an artificial intelligence-enabled digital twin system. Better sorting can raise calorific quality and reduce chlorine content, which is important for high-specification fuel supplied to cement kilns. N+P Group approved a 5-tonne-per-hour pilot line at Hartlepool in 2025 to recover high-biogenic fuel from difficult MSW and material recovery facility residues. The project targets fuel with more than 70% biogenic content and shows the shift toward improving carbon characteristics as well as energy value. 

Feedstock Moisture and Composition Variability

Inconsistent moisture content and composition remain operating challenges for the solid recovered fuel market. EUWID reported in December 2024 that commercial and industrial waste supplied to German facilities delivered calorific values of 11-12 MJ/kg against plant designs of 9.5-10.5 MJ/kg. Such variation can create thermal stress and reduce the suitability of fuel for intended kiln applications. Recycling requirements can also leave difficult fractions, including PVC-rich plastics, composites, and multilayer packaging, in the residual stream. These materials increase contamination risks and make consistent fuel production more difficult. Adaptive optical sorting and real-time calorific monitoring can help plants respond to changing inputs, but they require continuing capital and operating expenditure.

Capital, Permitting and Community-Acceptance Requirements

Capital requirements and permitting delays limit the pace of new capacity in the solid recovered fuel market. France had a theoretical capacity of 1.2 million tonnes per year across 36 facilities in 2022, while actual output was 400,000 tonnes in the same year. The difference reflected legal uncertainty around SRF classification and substantial up-front financing requirements. The French Ministry of Ecological Transition consulted in August 2025 on simplifying permitting for SRF incineration under classified-installation rules. Community concerns can add 2-4 years to development schedules for larger processing and energy-recovery sites. Long-term offtake arrangements are important because they can reduce revenue uncertainty and support project financing.

*Our forecasts treat driver/restraint impacts as directional, not additive. The impact forecasts reflect baseline growth, mix effects, and variable interactions.

Segment Analysis

By Feedstock Source: C&I Waste Gains Ground as MSW Supply Matures

Municipal solid waste held 54.8% of the solid recovered fuel market size by feedstock share in 2025. This reflects the scale and relative consistency of household waste collection systems in Europe and North America. The established position of MSW also shows that this feedstock is mature in many European markets. Higher-calorific material can be directed to mechanical-biological treatment and recycling, which can intensify competition for suitable MSW fractions. Commercial and industrial waste is forecast to grow at a 5.9% CAGR from 2026 to 2031. 

PreZero's Murcia facility supplies the Cemex Alicante plant, and its Barcelona plant processes 190,000 tonnes of commercial and industrial waste each year.^{[4]PreZero, “PreZero Spain Doubles SRF Deliveries to Cemex,” PreZero, prezero.com} These facilities show how commercial and industrial waste can be used in cement applications when sorting and logistics are integrated. Construction and demolition waste remains underused because mineral inerts, metals, and gypsum can reduce calorific yield. Agricultural and other waste streams remain smaller elements of the solid recovered fuel industry, mainly in South and Southeast Asia, where biomass availability meets developing cement co-processing capacity. German cement companies were reported in 2025 to be increasing their 2030 thermal substitution targets through documented blends of MSW and commercial and industrial fractions.

By End User: CHP Plants Accelerate Coal Exit While Cement Solidifies SRF Baseload

The cement industry accounted for 48.6% of the solid recovered fuel market size by end-user share in 2025. Cement kilns remain the central offtake route because they can use SRF at high temperatures and replace fossil fuels. Combined heat and power plants are the fastest-growing end-user category, with a forecast CAGR of 6.4% from 2026 to 2031. Veolia's Karviná district-heating project in the Czech Republic is replacing 4 remaining coal boilers with a multi-fuel circulating fluidized-bed boiler that uses RDF and SRF from locally sorted municipal waste. The project is intended to reduce carbon dioxide emissions by 200,000 tonnes compared with the pre-decarbonization configuration. 

CHP plants can accept wider calorific-value ranges than cement kilns in some configurations, although demand may vary with district-heating needs. This gives producers a flexible customer base but can add seasonal revenue variation. Power generation, lime, and steel and metal processing remain secondary users in the solid recovered fuel industry. The lime sector is expanding its use in Germany and Austria to reduce fossil fuel use in calcination. Pulp and paper is a smaller, more regional end user, especially in Scandinavia and Central Europe, where biomass-rich fuels suit existing boilers.

Geography Analysis

Europe held 56.9% of the solid recovered fuel market share in 2025. This position reflects long-term investment in waste processing, fuel quality standards, co-processing networks, and logistics. Austria, Germany, Sweden, and the Netherlands have mature utilization systems. Austria's cement industry achieved an 88.8% alternative fuel substitution rate in 2025 through specification-based fuel contracts. The revised EU Waste Shipment Regulation and the Digital Waste Shipment System became applicable in May 2026. 

Asia-Pacific is forecast to expand at a 7.2% CAGR from 2026 to 2031, the highest rate among regions in the solid recovered fuel market. China, India, Indonesia, and Vietnam are the main growth areas. China's Zero Waste City initiative has included pilot cities that direct urban waste management toward stronger resource recovery systems. Indonesia initiated more than USD 600 million in waste-to-energy investment in 2026, supporting pretreatment and fuel-preparation infrastructure. India faces moisture and contamination issues in municipal waste, which can reduce calorific yield without drying and advanced pretreatment.

North America remains smaller but has room to develop as cement producers raise substitution rates and landfill costs increase. South America is advancing through Brazil, where the 550,000 tonne-per-year UTM Leste plant in São Paulo is scheduled for commissioning in 2027 and is designed to combine RDF production with organic recovery. The Middle East and Africa remain at an earlier stage because co-processing infrastructure is limited. Geminor received a NOK 5 million grant from Norad in February 2026 to assess a plastic-waste-to-SRF hub in West Africa for cement-kiln use.