Nigeria E-commerce Market Size & Share Analysis - Growth Trends & Forecasts (2025 - 2030)

Nigeria E-commerce Market Trends and Insights

Surge in Social Commerce Adoption via WhatsApp & Instagram

Social shopping has shifted from a supplementary marketing tool into a priority sales engine for merchants in the Nigeria e-commerce market. Roughly 36.8 million social users dedicate close to four hours daily to platforms that now embed frictionless checkout. Businesses exploit these high-engagement venues to shorten conversion paths, increase order frequency and reduce reliance on formal storefronts. Real-time messaging builds consumer trust by enabling product verification before purchase. As a result, social commerce transaction value is projected to nearly double from USD 2.04 billion in 2025 to USD 3.96 billion in 2030, outpacing overall market growth. Platforms are also opening monetisation avenues for content creators, adding a community-led influence layer that supports cross-selling.

Rapid Expansion of Mobile-Money Agent Network for Pay-on-Delivery Conversion

Agent banking has evolved into an essential last-mile enabler for online retail, especially beyond tier-one cities. National initiatives targeting an eight-fold increase in female agents are widening consumer touchpoints for digital transactions. Agents convert cash-on-delivery orders into electronic settlements, lowering fraud risk and accelerating cash cycles for merchants. Larger corporates are introducing “agent-as-a-service” models, providing e-commerce platforms with on-demand distribution capacity. With cash still representing 55% of point-of-sale value, these networks help migrate shoppers into formal digital rails, ultimately enlarging addressable demand for the Nigeria e-commerce market.^{[3]CGAP, “Empowering Small Giants: Inclusive Embedded Finance for Micro Retailers,” cgap.org}

Government National Broadband Plan Targeting 70% Coverage by 2025

The broadband roadmap mandates download speeds of 25 Mbps in cities and 10 Mbps in rural zones, aiming to connect at least 90% of the population.^{[2]Central Bank of Nigeria, “The CBN Economic Report January 2025,” cbn.gov.ng} Every 10-point rise in broadband penetration is linked to up to 3.8% incremental GDP, reinforcing political commitment to infrastructure roll-outs. While a USD 461 million funding gap risks delay, public-private co-investment and a recently announced US-Nigeria technology dialogue are catalysing fibre deployment. Greater capacity unlocks richer media experiences, faster page loads and secure payment flows, broadening the customer base and supporting higher-value categories within the Nigeria e-commerce market.

Logistics Tech Start-ups Enabling Same-Day Fulfilment in Lagos & Abuja

More than 370 logistics tech ventures now operate in Nigeria, with funded players introducing AI-based route optimisation, real-time parcel visibility and micro-hub models. Same-day delivery, once aspirational, is becoming viable across key districts, elevating customer satisfaction and repeat orders. Asset-light orchestration platforms aggregate third-party vehicles and riders, cutting fixed costs while scaling capacity for peak events. As logistics reliability improves, retailers can confidently list perishable or fragile items, adding SKU diversity that deepens the Nigeria e-commerce market.

Urban Congestion & Poor Address Systems Inflate Last-Mile Costs

Traffic bottlenecks lengthen delivery windows by several hours and raise fulfilment charges by up to 30% versus structured markets. Informal addressing leads to failed drops and costly re-routes. Operators are piloting address validation APIs, geo-tagged pick-up lockers and community delivery agents to cut mis-delivery. Micro-fulfilment centres closer to demand clusters reduce travel distance but push up fixed overheads, limiting adoption by smaller vendors. Collaboration between state authorities and postal services aims to standardise addressing, which would materially unlock efficiency across the Nigeria e-commerce market.

High Card-Not-Present Fraud & Charge-backs Escalate Merchant Costs

Fraudulent transactions erode merchant profitability and damage consumer trust. Multi-factor authentication, one-time passwords and tokenisation have lowered attack vectors, yet fraud rates remain above global averages. Payment gateways are investing in behavioural analytics to flag anomalies in real time. Cost-sharing arrangements between issuers and acquirers help absorb charge-back exposure, but smaller sellers still face processing fee penalties that discourage card acceptance.

Segment Analysis

By Business Model: B2B Platforms Unlock Supply-Chain Efficiency

The B2C arm dominates current value flows, holding 87% Nigeria e-commerce market share in 2024. Even so, the B2B channel is scaling at an 18.5% CAGR as wholesalers and informal retailers digitise procurement. Leading start-ups process hundreds of millions of USD in annual transactions, leveraging embedded credit to improve stock rotation for corner shops that still drive most consumer purchases. Service expansion into inventory analytics, demand forecasting and supplier financing makes these platforms integral to the fast-moving consumer goods chain.  

Digitalisation compresses procurement costs by roughly one-fifth and cuts delivery lead times from days to hours. As mobile penetration deepens, rural shop owners increasingly use voice-enabled ordering interfaces offered in local languages. Financial-service partners underwrite inventory loans based on real-time sales data, reducing default risk. Over the forecast horizon, scale economics, coupled with deeper monetisation of data, should sustain double-digit growth and progressively rebalance overall revenue composition within the Nigeria e-commerce market.

By Device Type: Mobile Prevails, Multiscreen Matures

Smartphones generated 82% of orders in 2024 and are projected to grow at a 13.2% CAGR. The Nigeria e-commerce market size for mobile reached USD 7.66 billion in 2025 and is set to exceed USD 12.5 billion by 2030. High-speed 4G and impending 5G roll-outs further reinforce mobile’s primacy. Desktop traffic, while shrinking as a share, remains important for research-intensive or high-value purchases such as appliances.  

Short-form video, live commerce and in-app messaging are optimised for handheld devices, obliging merchants to prioritise responsive design, compressed imagery and concise copy. Voice search and vernacular chat-bots improve accessibility for first-time shoppers. Concurrently, connected-TV commerce and smart-speaker ordering are emerging in affluent homes, indicating a gradual pivot toward omnichannel engagement. Platforms that maintain design parity across screens are positioned to capture incremental wallet share as device ecosystems proliferate.

By Payment Method: BNPL Widens Affordability Spectrum

Cards led value throughput with 33% share in 2024, yet BNPL volume is climbing rapidly. The Nigeria e-commerce market size for BNPL solutions is expected to surpass USD 1.62 billion in 2025, reflecting mounting preference among millennials seeking frictionless credit. Pay-in-four instalments spread discretionary spending without incurring traditional loan interest, driving up conversion rates for electronics and fashion.  

Digital wallets are on track to capture 22% of transaction value by 2027. Telecommunications operators anchor this trend by bundling wallets with data plans and loyalty rewards. Payment orchestration platforms route transactions dynamically to optimise approval rates and lower fees. Cash-on-delivery still appeals in trust-deficit clusters, but its share will erode as agent networks and regulatory safeguards improve perception of digital channels in the Nigeria e-commerce market.

Note: Segment shares of all individual segments available upon report purchase

By B2C Product Category: Beauty and Personal Care Outpaces Core Electronics

Consumer electronics retained the revenue crown with 28% of sales in 2024, buoyed by demand for smartphones, accessories and home entertainment. However, beauty and personal care generated the fastest trajectory with a 16.8% CAGR outlook. Rising disposable income and social-media-driven aesthetics fuel online discovery of skincare, haircare and cosmetics. Local indie brands leverage home-grown ingredients and inclusive shades to differentiate.  

Average basket values in beauty remain lower than electronics but frequency is higher, promoting recurring revenue. Subscription models for essential items and influencer-led bundles encourage loyalty. Meanwhile, fashion, grocery and home goods continue to expand as logistics and cold-chain capacity strengthen. Augmented-reality try-on tools for furniture and apparel reduce return rates, enhancing profitability across verticals in the Nigeria e-commerce market.

Geography Analysis

Greater Lagos accounted for nearly 40% of online orders in 2024, supported by 60% broadband penetration and a dense courier network. Abuja and Port Harcourt complete the top urban triad, contributing a further quarter of trade. Collectively, these hubs dominate basket sizes and host the highest concentration of same-day fulfilment services. Smart lockers and bike couriers offset traffic congestion, yet address verification remains a work in progress.  

Expansion to secondary cities such as Ibadan, Kano and Enugu is accelerating. Telecom roll-outs, affordable smartphones and agent-enabled cash digitisation lower entry barriers for first-time shoppers. The Nigeria e-commerce market size attributable to northern states is projected to record a 15.3% CAGR to 2030, aided by government and donor programmes that promote female agent participation and vernacular literacy tools. Regional platform variants with lighter apps and USSD ordering further bridge digital divides.  

Cross-border commerce layers another dimension on geography. Import-dependent segments rely on coastal ports and Lagos airport logistics hubs to feed inventory. The African Continental Free Trade Area promises smoother customs corridors, potentially expanding addressable demand to diaspora markets and neighbouring economies. However, currency risks and nascent digital tax enforcement make cross-border volume sensitive to macro shifts. Operators that hedge currency exposure and adopt compliant invoicing stand to capture incremental share within the Nigeria e-commerce market.