Oil And Gas CAPEX Market Size & Share Analysis - Growth Trends and Forecast (2026 - 2031)

Global Oil And Gas CAPEX Market Trends and Insights

Increasing LNG-Ready Gas Infrastructure Build-Out

IEA tracks 290 billion cubic meters per year of new liquefaction capacity slated for 2025-2030, underpinning a wave of midstream investment.^{[1]International Energy Agency, “Methane Tracker 2025,” iea.org} ExxonMobil recommitted USD 30 billion to restart Mozambique LNG in 2026, while Woodside approved a USD 17.5 billion Louisiana export facility expected online in 2029.^{[2]Woodside Energy, “ASX Filing March 2025,” woodside.com} Asian buyers continue to sign 15-20-year offtake agreements, de-risking project finance and enabling debt-to-equity ratios above 70:30. Lake Charles LNG reached mechanical completion in late 2025, adding 16.5 million tonnes per annum (mtpa) of nameplate capacity. Similar milestones at Plaquemines LNG tighten global supply-demand balances and sustain construction backlogs through decade-end.

Rising Deep-Water Discoveries Driving FIDs

Projects in water depths beyond 1,500 meters received FIDs covering 15 billion barrels of recoverable reserves during 2024-2025. Petrobras sanctioned Búzios 11 and Atapu 3 FPSOs, each rated for 180,000 barrels per day, leveraging standardized hulls that cut fabrication time by 18 months. Shell advanced Sparta in the US Gulf of Mexico at a USD 35 per barrel breakeven, and BP approved Kaskida using subsea boosting to extend plateau production by five years. TotalEnergies’ Kaminho project in Angola integrates subsea-to-shore power, eliminating platform-generator emissions. Guyana’s Whiptail and Hammerhead FPSOs will lift national capacity beyond 1.2 million barrels per day by 2027.

NOC Upstream Spending Rebound in Middle East & Asia

Saudi Aramco’s USD 50 billion 2024 budget prioritized Jafurah unconventional gas and offshore expansions aimed at displacing liquids in domestic power generation. Middle East upstream spend reached USD 130 billion in 2025 as the United Arab Emirates and Qatar scaled offshore capacity. PetroChina exceeded USD 60 billion in 2024 capital outlay, targeting tight-gas and South China Sea exploration, while CNOOC allocated USD 13-14 billion to offshore condensate and gas projects. India’s ONGC earmarked USD 8.6 billion across 2024-2025 for Krishna-Godavari developments and mature-field enhanced recovery.

Surge in Maintenance CAPEX to Decarbonize Brownfields

IEA estimates USD 600 billion will be spent through 2030 retrofitting methane-capture, electrification, and carbon-capture solutions on existing assets. NETL studies show post-combustion amine systems can be integrated at USD 80-100 per tonne of CO₂ when pipelines are nearby. Siemens Energy reports 15-20% emissions reductions after replacing diesel generators with shore-power or hybrid systems. Subsea compression in the North Sea is extending asset life by up to 15 years, deferring abandonment costs under stricter emissions benchmarks. The capital shift reduces reserve-replacement ratios but lengthens economic lives of mature basins under evolving disclosure frameworks.

Volatility in Dated Brent Discouraging Long-Cycle Projects

Brent traded between USD 70 and USD 95 per barrel across 2024-2025, below breakevens for many frontier deepwater prospects, leading operators to defer 8-10 billion barrels of potential resources. Drilling costs above USD 150 million per well and 6-8-year timelines deter FIDs when forward curves flatten.^{[3]International Energy Agency, “World Energy Outlook 2025,” iea.org} Independent E&P companies saw borrowing costs rise by up to 200 basis points, pushing hurdle rates to 15-18% IRR.^{[4]Financial Times, “Energy Finance Coverage 2025,” ft.com} Capital is shifting to short-cycle shale and brownfield upgrades, potentially constraining global supply in the early 2030s if sanctioning does not rebound.

ESG-Linked Debt Covenants Capping Fossil CAPEX Ceilings

North American and European lenders embedded emissions-intensity tests into reserve-based lending structures, limiting the share of proceeds eligible for oil and gas spending. OECD fossil-fuel exploration subsidies fell 22% between 2023 and 2025, and private project finance dropped 18%. Shell, BP, and TotalEnergies cut collective oil and gas CAPEX by 12% in 2025 versus 2023 to meet net-zero pathways, redirecting funds to offshore wind and storage. Sustainability-linked loans now ratchet interest margins upward by 25-50 basis points when methane-intensity targets are missed, further steering capital to lower-carbon LNG projects.

Segment Analysis

By Sector: Upstream Holds Dominance

Upstream captured a 73.24% share in 2025, and the CAPEX oil & gas market size for this segment is forecast to grow at a 4.12% CAGR through 2031. Deepwater FIDs totaling 15 billion barrels in 2024 across Brazil, the US Gulf of Mexico, Angola, and Guyana capitalize on standardized FPSO and subsea systems that reduce per-barrel costs. National oil companies are sustaining high spend levels, with Saudi Aramco, PetroChina, and CNOOC together exceeding USD 130 billion in combined upstream budgets during 2024.

Digital-twin platforms deliver 30-40% reductions in cost overruns, freeing capital for parallel projects and shortening schedules by up to 18 months. Midstream investment remains steady as hydrogen-ready pipelines and carbon-capture hubs secure US Department of Energy support. Downstream complexes in Asia and the Middle East integrate refining and petrochemicals to improve margins by 15-20% in response to declining OECD gasoline demand.

Note: Segment shares of all individual segments available upon report purchase

By Location: Offshore Momentum Builds

Onshore projects commanded 79.43% of 2025 expenditure, yet offshore CAPEX is set for a 7.21% CAGR to 2031 as the CAPEX oil & gas market size for deepwater projects grows faster than onshore equivalents. Shell’s Sparta and BP’s Kaskida use subsea boosting and tiebacks to existing infrastructure, cutting development costs 25-30%. New Fortress Energy’s small-scale FLNG fleet monetizes stranded reserves below 1 trillion cubic feet, supporting offshore gas monetization without new pipelines.

Onshore unconventional activity remains intense, with 12,000 wells drilled in the Permian during 2024 to sustain 6 million barrels per day of output. Canada invested USD 12 billion in oil sands expansions, while China’s Sichuan tight-gas program commands USD 15 billion annually. Decommissioning liabilities, £24 billion in the UK North Sea and 14,000 idle Gulf of Mexico structures, create a parallel offshore spend stream focused on safe retirement.

By Service: Decommissioning Leads Growth

Construction held 47.70% of 2025 expenditure, but decommissioning is projected to log a 6.55% CAGR, the highest among services within the CAPEX oil & gas market. Plug-and-abandonment costs ranging from USD 1.5-2.5 million per well in the Gulf of Mexico and escalating UK North Sea mandates underpin demand. Robotics-enabled abandonment rigs are reducing intervention time by 40%, attracting specialized contractors and fragmenting a space long dominated by integrated service providers.

Maintenance CAPEX for emissions retrofits totals USD 600 billion through 2030, compelling service firms to scale electrification, methane-capture, and CO₂-sequestration offerings. Simultaneously, liquefaction megaprojects in Qatar, the US Gulf Coast, and Mozambique account for individual construction packages exceeding USD 20 billion, preserving a robust backlog for civil, mechanical, and module-assembly contractors.

Note: Segment shares of all individual segments available upon report purchase

Geography Analysis

Asia-Pacific captured 29.36% of 2025 spending, and the CAPEX oil & gas market size in the region is forecast to grow at a 4.83% CAGR to 2031. PetroChina’s USD 60 billion annual budget and CNOOC’s USD 13-14 billion offshore program underpin tight-gas and condensate growth targets. India’s ONGC invests USD 8.6 billion in Krishna-Godavari assets and plans 10 mtpa of new regasification capacity by 2030. Woodside’s Scarborough and Browse LNG projects add 13 mtpa of capacity, while Papua New Guinea and Vietnam develop integrated gas-to-power schemes.

North America and Europe together accounted for roughly 35% of 2025 CAPEX but recorded slower growth as institutional capital pivots toward renewables. The United States maintains leadership through 12,000 Permian wells and 27.5 mtpa of new LNG capacity at Woodside, Louisiana, and Lake Charles. Canada’s USD 12 billion oil-sands expansions prioritize 30-year SAGD projects. European majors trimmed oil and gas CAPEX 12% in 2025 to fund offshore wind and batteries, yet Equinor sanctioned Johan Castberg, showing selective approval for high-return Norwegian Barents projects.

The Middle East and Africa hold near-25% of global spending. Saudi Aramco’s USD 50 billion program boosts unconventional and offshore capacity, while QatarEnergy’s North Field expansion adds 48 mtpa of LNG by 2027. Angola’s Kaminho and Brazil’s Búzios 11 demonstrate deepwater momentum, complemented by Guyana’s additional FPSOs raising capacity above 1.2 million barrels per day.