Oil And Gas CAPEX Market Size & Share Analysis - Growth Trends And Forecast (2025 - 2030)

Global Oil And Gas CAPEX Market Trends and Insights

Increasing LNG-Ready Gas Infrastructure Build-Out

Long-term offtake contracts and structurally tight gas balances have catalyzed LNG megaprojects such as Woodside’s USD 17.5 billion Louisiana facility and the Corpus Christi Stage 3 expansion.^{[1]Offshore Energy, "LNG Project Pipeline," offshore-energy.biz} Developers are extending their spending beyond liquefaction into processing, pipelines, and storage, creating multiplier effects throughout the oil and gas capital expenditure (capex) market. First-mover positions in regions with stranded gas—illustrated by NextDecade’s Rio Grande LNG offtake with Saudi Aramco—are projected to lock in decades of free cash flow.

Rising Deep-Water Discoveries Driving FIDs

Cost deflation in subsea kit and standardized project models has driven deepwater breakevens below USD 50 per barrel, prompting projects like BP’s USD 5 billion Kaskida and TotalEnergies’ USD 6 billion Kaminho to proceed with sanctioning. Therefore, the oil and gas capex market sees robust order books for specialized rigs, SURF, and FPSO contractors, with 2025 offshore EPC opportunities estimated at USD 54 billion.

NOC Upstream Spending Rebound in Middle East & Asia

PTTEP’s USD 5.3 billion 2025 program, along with similar moves by PetroChina and CNOOC, illustrates how governments prioritize energy security while exploiting low-cost resource bases.^{[2]Journal of Petroleum Technology, "NOC Investment Programs," jpt.spe.org} The investment surge has drawn international service companies back into the region, reinforcing near-term support for the oil and gas capital expenditure market.

Surge in “Maintenance CAPEX” to Decarbonize Brownfields

Regulatory carbon penalties lead operators like Equinor and Essar to retrofit CCUS hubs, methane leak detection, and energy-efficiency systems.^{[3]Reuters, "Carbon Reduction Initiatives," reuters.com} Maintenance budgets previously plateaued are now outpacing new-build spend growth, shifting the oil and gas capex market mix toward brownfield upgrades.

Volatility in Dated Brent Discouraging Long-Cycle Projects

Brent's USD 68-93 range in 2024 masked sharp intraday swings that complicate NPV calculations for projects with paybacks of 7-10 years.^{[4]International Energy Agency, "Energy Investment Trends," iea.org} Lenders have responded by raising hurdle rates and tightening stress-test scenarios, effectively screening out marginal oil and gas capex market opportunities. Citi's forecast of prices potentially dropping into the USD 60s by 2025 further discourages long-cycle commitments.

Policy Pivots Toward Renewables in OECD

Clean energy investments reached USD 2 trillion in 2024, compared to USD 1 trillion for fossil fuels, reflecting policy tailwinds for transition spending. Paradoxically, European majors are scaling back their investments in renewables to protect hydrocarbon returns, with BP halting 18 hydrogen projects and Shell revising its carbon targets.

Segment Analysis

By Sector: Upstream Dominance Driven by FID Acceleration

Upstream activities are expected to command 72.92% of the oil and gas capex market share in 2024, benefiting from a 4.19% CAGR forecast through 2030 as operators accelerate final investment decisions on high-return deepwater and unconventional projects. The sector's growth momentum reflects strategic repositioning toward short-cycle developments that adapt quickly to commodity price fluctuations while maintaining competitive returns. Major upstream investments include BP's USD 5 billion Kaskida project and Chevron's Future Growth Project at Tengiz, which commenced production in January 2025 with the capacity to increase output by 260,000 barrels per day. Midstream operations focus on addressing critical infrastructure bottlenecks, particularly in LNG processing and pipeline capacity expansions, which enable upstream production growth. With companies prioritizing maintenance CAPEX over capacity additions, downstream investments remain constrained by margin pressures and uncertain long-term demand projections.

Digital transformation reshapes upstream project execution through AI-enabled drilling optimization and predictive maintenance systems, reducing operational costs and improving recovery rates. SLB's major AI-enabled deepwater drilling contract demonstrates how technology adoption is becoming essential for competitive positioning in complex reservoir developments. The upstream sector's CAPEX allocation increasingly emphasizes production optimization over exploration, reflecting lessons learned from previous cycles where discovery-focused strategies generated insufficient returns. Companies utilize advanced seismic imaging and reservoir modeling to optimize production from existing fields, rather than pursuing speculative exploration programs. This production-centric approach aligns with investor demands for capital discipline and near-term cash flow generation while maintaining long-term reserve replacement ratios.

Note: Segment shares of all individual segments available upon report purchase

By Location: Offshore Growth Outpaces Onshore Despite Scale Disadvantage

Onshore operations maintain a 79.53% oil and gas capex market share in 2024, leveraging lower development costs and established infrastructure networks. Meanwhile, the offshore segments are experiencing accelerated growth of 7.11% CAGR, driven by technological advances and major deepwater discoveries. The offshore growth trajectory reflects improved project economics, driven by standardized subsea equipment and enhanced drilling techniques that reduce breakeven costs to below USD 50 per barrel for many developments. Chevron's Ballymore project in the Gulf of America exemplifies how offshore developments can achieve competitive returns through efficient subsea tieback strategies and optimized production profiles. Onshore investments continue to focus on shale optimization and enhanced recovery techniques that maximize output from existing acreage positions. The location-based investment split reflects risk-adjusted return calculations where onshore projects offer more predictable execution timelines despite potentially lower ultimate recovery rates.

Floating production systems enable offshore development in previously inaccessible water depths and harsh environments, with FLNG technology particularly attractive for remote gas discoveries that cannot support traditional pipeline infrastructure. The offshore EPC market is projected to reach USD 61 billion in 2024, representing a 47% increase from the previous year despite project delays and inflationary pressures. Onshore operations benefit from established supply chains and workforce availability, though rising labor costs and environmental regulations are increasing project complexity and execution timelines. The geographic distribution of investments reflects the availability of resources and regulatory environments, with operators becoming increasingly selective about jurisdictions that offer stable fiscal terms and predictable permitting processes.

By Service: Decommissioning Surge Challenges Construction Dominance

Construction services retained the largest foothold with 47.85% of 2024 spending because upstream megaprojects and LNG terminals still require heavy civil works. Big-ticket approvals such as Woodside’s USD 17.5 billion Louisiana LNG plant and BP’s USD 5 billion Kaskida deep-water project are keeping order books full for EPC and marine contractors. Engineering and procurement specialists underpin both construction and decommissioning by completing front-end design studies and securing long-lead equipment. Maintenance work, accounting for 47.85% of 2024 spending, as upstream megaprojects and LNG terminals still require extensive work, is shifting toward digital upgrades and emission-cutting retrofits as operators modernize existing assets. Operations teams are also extending facility life through predictive maintenance and automated monitoring that lower unplanned downtime.

Decommissioning is the fastest-growing service line, expanding at a 6.40% CAGR through 2030 as aging offshore assets, especially in the North Sea, approach retirement. That basin alone is expected to require USD 24 billion for removals over the coming decade, creating a sizable pipeline of end-of-life work. Contractors are embedding sustainability rules and digital tools, with SLB estimating that AI-driven project controls can trim execution schedules by up to 15% while raising safety standards. Emerging subsea cutting systems and modular lifting methods are lowering costs and reducing environmental impact, reshaping competition within what was once a construction-dominated landscape

Note: Segment shares of all individual segments available upon report purchase

Geography Analysis

Asia-Pacific emerges as the largest (29% of the market share in 2024) and the fastest-growing regional oil and gas capex market with 4.86% CAGR through 2030, reflecting energy security imperatives and substantial NOC investment programs designed to reduce import dependence and capture domestic market growth. PTTEP's USD 5.3 billion CAPEX plan for 2025 demonstrates how regional operators prioritize upstream gas development and LNG supply chain investments to serve domestic consumption and export opportunities. The region's growth momentum is supported by rising electricity demand driven by economic development and data center expansion, with companies like Chevron establishing major engineering centers in India to capture cost advantages and local market opportunities. Chinese and Indian NOCs are accelerating domestic exploration and development programs while pursuing international acquisitions that secure long-term resource access. However, regional operators face increasing financing challenges as international banks implement ESG-linked lending restrictions. APAC oil and gas firms generate 96% of revenues from fossil fuel activities compared to more diversified global peers.

North American and European markets are experiencing divergent trends, with North America benefiting from shale production optimization and LNG export infrastructure development while Europe focuses increasingly on maintenance CAPEX and decarbonization projects. North American operators, such as Devon Energy and EOG Resources, demonstrate exceptional capital discipline. Devon generated USD 1 billion in free cash flow during Q1 2025, while reducing its CAPEX guidance by USD 100 million, according to investing.com. Though companies continue to invest in existing operations and carbon capture technologies, European investments are constrained by regulatory pressures and renewable energy policies that discourage new fossil fuel development. The regional divergence reflects different regulatory environments and resource endowments, with North American shale providing flexibility to adjust production levels in response to commodity prices, while European operators navigate more restrictive policy frameworks. South American markets remain focused on deepwater developments and infrastructure projects that can serve domestic energy security needs and capitalize on export market opportunities, although political stability and regulatory consistency continue to influence international operator participation levels.

Middle East and Africa market is driven by abundant low-cost reserves and supportive government policies that encourage domestic and international development. The region benefits from production costs often below USD 20 per barrel and established infrastructure networks that reduce development timelines and CAPEX requirements compared to frontier regions. Saudi Aramco and other regional NOCs are implementing substantial upstream expansion programs while investing in downstream integration and petrochemical facilities that capture higher value-added margins throughout the hydrocarbon value chain. ExxonMobil's planned USD 1.5 billion deepwater investment in Nigeria exemplifies how international operators prioritize the region despite global energy transition pressures. The region's CAPEX growth is supported by long-term supply contracts with Asian buyers and strategic positioning for anticipated global supply tightness during the energy transition period. However, operators must navigate evolving ESG expectations and potential demand destruction in traditional export markets as the adoption of renewable energy accelerates.