Gabon Oil And Gas Market Size & Share Analysis - Growth Trends and Forecast (2026 - 2031)

Gabon Oil And Gas Market Trends and Insights

Revised Hydrocarbons Code Attracting IOCs

Gabon’s 2025 dual-code framework separates oil and gas terms, trims state participation to 10%, and grants import-duty exemptions for LNG equipment, making fiscal terms regionally competitive.^{[1]Africa Oil & Power, “Gabon Adopts Dual Hydrocarbons Code,” africaoilpower.com} ExxonMobil and BP executed ultra-deepwater memoranda of understanding (MoUs) in 2025, ending a decade-long hiatus by supermajors. Perenco fast-tracked Cap Lopez FLNG once accelerated depreciation for gas projects became law. The code mandates 90-day approvals for production-sharing contracts, compressing bureaucratic timelines. Independents such as BW Energy and Panoro expanded Dussafu drilling on the back of the same incentives.

New Deep-Water Discoveries (Dussafu, Hibiscus)

BW Energy’s Bourdon find in March 2025 raised Dussafu recoverable reserves to over 150 million barrels and supports a third production hub. Reservoirs in Gamba sandstones show permeability above 500 mD, yielding 5,000-10,000 barrels per day (bpd) initial rates that justify USD 40-60 million well costs. PETRONAS confirmed frontier potential when Boudji-1 logged 90 m hydrocarbon sands in 2024. These successes offset a 60% onshore decline since the 1990s. Panoro’s 17.5% stake in Dussafu generated 4,760-6,502 bpd in 2025 and funded MaBoMo Phase 2 drilling.

Cap Lopez FLNG & Gas Monetization Build-Out

Perenco’s USD 2 billion Cap Lopez FLNG, slated for 2026 start-up, will liquefy 700,000 tpa LNG and 25,000 tpa LPG from associated gas currently flared. The modular barge converts environmental liabilities into export cash flow, targeting Asian buyers seeking smaller cargoes.^{[2]Offshore Technology, “Perenco Sanctions Cap Lopez FLNG,” offshore-technology.com} Gabon holds 27 billion scm of proven gas yet lacks domestic pipelines, so floating LNG is the only bankable route. Replicable modules may unlock Tchibala and Torpille gas, broadening the monetization base. Compliance with ISO 14001 and IMO MARPOL Annex VI is baked into the export license.

Global Demand for Low-Sulfur Crudes

Rabi Light and Mandji contain <0.5% sulfur, meeting IMO 2020 rules and commanding USD 8-per-barrel premiums to sour grades in 2025. Exports averaged 204,000 bpd in 2024, with China taking 72,000 bpd and other Asian refiners 57,000 bpd. Low-sulfur demand helps sustain drilling even when Brent prices soften. However, fresh sweet supply from Guyana and Brazil is narrowing differentials, pressuring Gabonese netbacks. Producers must therefore pare costs or integrate carbon-intensity certification to stay competitive.

Decline of Legacy Onshore Fields

Onshore output fell from 370,000 bpd in 1997 to 224,000 bpd in 2024 and could slip to 100,000-200,000 bpd by 2030 without major EOR investment. Water cuts exceed 80%, and reservoir pressure is dropping, reducing waterflood efficiency. Polymer or CO₂ projects cost USD 15,000-25,000 per incremental barrel of reserves with 10-year paybacks, deterring capital. TotalEnergies quit its mature assets in 2021, transferring liabilities to Perenco. A 30% decline would cut fiscal receipts by USD 1.8 billion, squeezing infrastructure budgets.

Skilled-Labor Shortage for Deep-Water Ops

Subsea engineers, dynamic-positioning officers, and ROV pilots are scarce, forcing operators to import specialists at USD 800-1,200 per day.^{[3]OECD-AUC, “Skills Outlook for Resource-Rich Africa 2024,” oecd.org} Gabonese vocational programs focus on onshore trades; few graduates have hands-on BOP or subsea tree exposure. Expat reliance triggers local-content penalties when national staffing falls under 70%. Industry/academic partnerships and CEMAC-wide certification could ease costs and improve mobility. TechnipFMC and Schlumberger have begun sponsoring simulation labs, but scale remains modest.

Segment Analysis

By Sector: Upstream Dominance Sustained by Deep-Water Momentum

The upstream portion of the Gabon oil & gas market size accounted for 76.1% revenue in 2025 and is advancing at a 3.8% CAGR through 2031. Annual spend is driven by USD 40-60 million wells and USD 500 million-plus floating production systems. Midstream outlays are smaller because new wells tie back to existing hubs, while downstream refining covers only 7% of domestic crude throughput.

Investment prioritizes projects with quick cash cycles, such as VAALCO’s USD 80 million infill program at Etame that pays back in under two years, contrasting with PETRONAS’s ultra-deepwater Boudji-1, where capital and risk rise sharply. Efficiency gains from integrated engineering contracts further cement upstream primacy. The Gabon oil & gas market will maintain this upstream tilt unless incentives emerge for local petrochemicals or gas-to-liquids complexes.

Note: Segment shares of all individual segments available upon report purchase

By Location: Offshore Acceleration Reshaping Production Geography

Onshore fields still dominate Gabon's oil & gas market share at 70.5% in 2025, yet offshore volumes are growing 6.5% per year and could overtake by 2028. Deep-water wells deliver 5,000-10,000 bpd rates at operating costs of USD 12-18 per barrel, outranking older onshore units that now average USD 20-28.

The trend accelerated after ExxonMobil's 2025 MoU to explore ultra-deepwater blocks analogous to Guyana's Stabroek play. Onshore players are piloting horizontal drilling and AI-enabled polymer floods, but each well adds just 200-500 bpd. Offshore growth, therefore, sets the pace for the Gabon oil & gas market, contingent on timely FPSO deployment and streamlined environmental reviews.

By Service: Decommissioning Surge Reflects Aging Infrastructure

Construction claimed 51.9% of service revenue in 2025, yet decommissioning is the fastest-growing slice at 7.2% CAGR, mirroring platform age profiles.^{[4]Delta Decom, “Asset Retirement in West Africa,” deltadecom.com} More than 40 structures installed pre-2000 show corrosion and fatigue that demand removal under ISO 14001.

Tullow’s asset sale carried USD 31 million in decommissioning provisions, highlighting latent liabilities. Specialized contractors handle plug-and-abandonment, heavy-lift topside removal, and seabed remediation, all new revenue pools inside the Gabon oil & gas market. Operators must decide between life-extension capex or earlier retirement to redeploy capital offshore.

Note: Segment shares of all individual segments available upon report purchase

Geography Analysis

Offshore Dussafu, Cap Lopez, and Likuale blocks and onshore Gamba and Rabi-Kounga basins form the geographic spine of the Gabon oil & gas market. Onshore still represented 70.5% market weight in 2025, yet depletion has set total national production on course for 100,000-200,000 bpd by 2030 unless offshore replacement barrels arrive. Perenco leads onshore with marginal-field projects such as Wamba, but output gains are modest. BW Energy’s Bourdon find, and Panoro’s MaBoMo Phase 2 inject growth offshore, nudging the balance seaward.

Higher-quality reservoirs offshore achieve breakeven at USD 35-45 per barrel Brent, well under the USD 50-60 required for advanced EOR onshore. PETRONAS’s Likuale discovery and ExxonMobil’s ultra-deepwater initiative may unlock Guyana-scale Cretaceous plays, broadening the reserve base. Meanwhile, fiscal incentives in the 2025 code and the country’s compact geography - with many discoveries within 50 km of shore - lower tie-back costs and de-risk economics.

Cap Lopez FLNG monetizes associated gas, converting what was flared into export revenue while cutting carbon penalties. The onshore Batanga LPG plant reduces import dependence but cannot absorb all surplus gas, leaving reinjection prevalent. Future basin entries will likely cluster around existing hubs, reinforcing geographic path dependence inside the Gabon oil & gas market.