Denmark Wind Energy Market Size & Share Analysis - Growth Trends And Forecast (2025 - 2030)

Denmark Wind Energy Market Trends and Insights

Aggressive Offshore-Wind Tenders Through 2030

Denmark reset its build-out trajectory after canceling a 6 GW auction in December 2024, then relaunched a scaled-back 3 GW tender in May 2025, bundled with state subsidies. The policy pivot favors bankable projects over headline volumes and places larger execution risk on developers. RWE’s 1.1 GW Thor field, green-lighted in October 2024, anchors this pragmatism with 72 Siemens Gamesa SG 14-236 DD turbines scheduled for 2025-2027 installation. Energy-Island concepts at Bornholm and in the North Sea add a hybrid layer by combining offshore wind, battery storage, and HVDC export lines to Germany, the Netherlands, and the UK. A December 2024 240 MW permit award further signals that smaller increments will run parallel to marquee auctions, emphasizing delivery certainty over ambitious megawatt targets.

Lowest LCOE in EU Due to Mature OEM & Supply Base

Three decades of domestic turbine manufacturing keep Denmark’s LCOE among Europe’s lowest. Vestas assembled and installed its V236-15 MW prototype at Thyborøn in March 2024, leveraging short transport routes and specialized ports that minimize logistics costs.^{[1]Danish Energy Agency, “Technology Catalogue 2030,” ens.dk} Siemens Gamesa’s Danish nacelle plants apply similar proximity advantages, while Esbjerg port streamlines offshore component pre-assembly for the Thor project. The result is a 10-15% cost edge versus markets that import equipment over longer supply chains. Competing hubs in the Netherlands and Scotland are closing the gap, yet Denmark remains the preferred test bed for >15 MW platforms ahead of wider European rollout.

Surging Corporate-PPA Demand From Data Centers & Industry

Data-center electricity needs are forecast to hit 6 TWh annually by 2026, equivalent to one-fifth of national demand, spurring a wave of long-term PPAs. Microsoft’s agreement with European Energy, STARK Group’s 132 GWh annual PPA inked in September 2024, and Ørsted’s portfolio serving Amazon, Danfoss, and TSMC show how corporates underwrite fresh capacity. Eurowind Energy paired an 85 MW hybrid park at GreenLab Skive with a 10-year offtake, bundling wind, solar, and storage to deliver a steadier load profile.^{[2]Eurowind Energy, “Annual Report 2024,” eurowind.dk} Fixed-price contracts help developers mitigate captured-price volatility, accelerate final investment decisions, and diversify revenue away from tender-linked subsidies.

EU & Danish decarbonisation incentives / CO₂ taxation

Denmark’s escalating CO₂ levy, set to reach DKK 750 /t by 2030, lifts renewable competitiveness versus fossil generation.^{[3]Danish Ministry of Climate, Energy and Utilities, “Energy and Climate Outlook 2025,” klimaministeriet.dk} The levy dovetails with EU Fit for 55 targets and the Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism, tightening the economics for unabated thermal power. Variable renewable energy supplied 70% of Danish electricity in 2024, up from 63% in 2023, according to the IEA. While higher taxes favor wind, they also squeeze merchant margins during low-price, high-wind hours, nudging developers toward storage co-location or corporate contracts for price certainty.

Grid Bottlenecks & Limited Substation Capacity

Energinet earmarked DKK 23 billion for backbone upgrades through 2030, yet substation capacity in Jutland still lags new connections, forcing developers to co-finance reinforcements that raise project capex by 10-15%.^{[4]Energinet, “Grid Development Plan 2030,” energinet.dk} High VRE penetration stresses voltage control and reactive-power support, once handled by centralized fossil plants, leading to localized curtailment. Offshore assets connect via dedicated high-voltage substations, but onshore queues now exceed 18 months, prompting some developers to pivot toward repowering or hybrid options that require smaller incremental grid capacity.

Lengthy Permitting & Local Opposition for New Onshore Sites

Municipal approvals, avian studies, and noise assessments prolong onshore project lifecycles beyond five years, despite national carbon goals.^{[5]Danish Energy Agency, “Offshore Wind Permitting Portal,” ens.dk} Community veto power over siting results in patchy geographic rollout; western Jutland councils approve projects faster than Zealand or Funen, where visual-impact concerns dominate. Developers increasingly propose revenue-sharing or community ownership to secure social license, yet these mechanisms dilute returns and add contractual complexity.

Segment Analysis

By Location: Onshore Dominance, Offshore Scale Up

Onshore wind contributed 65.2% to the Denmark wind energy market in 2024, buoyed by the repowering of legacy fleets that leverage existing grid ties. The segment’s 11.5% CAGR to 2030 is underpinned by modular upgrade kits from Vestas and Siemens Gamesa, which reduce downtime and lower per-megawatt capital outlays. Although planning hurdles persist, community co-ownership schemes are easing local acceptance in high-resource municipalities. Offshore wind, despite a smaller base, benefits from 12 GW in pipeline tenders. RWE’s Thor project anchors near-term capacity, while Energy-Island hubs promise multi-country offtake flexibility that expands the Denmark wind energy market size beyond domestic demand. Vessel scarcity and subsidy realignments remain critical variables for final investment decisions.

The capital intensity of offshore projects commands larger balance sheets, attracting global utilities and infrastructure funds. Meanwhile, smaller developers gravitate toward onshore and community-scale arrays where capital barriers are lower. As grid-upgrade schedules solidify, the Denmark wind energy market could see offshore’s share surpass 40% post-2030, contingent on tender delivery and vessel availability.

Note: Segment shares of all individual segments available upon report purchase

By Turbine Capacity: Legacy Upgrades vs. Offshore Giants

Units up to 3 MW still represented 48.9% of Denmark's wind energy market share in 2024 because of early-mover deployments during the 1990s-2000s. Repowering will gradually erode that dominance as onshore sites adopt 4-6 MW platforms that improve capacity factors and reduce maintenance. Turbines above 6 MW enjoy the fastest growth at 18.6% CAGR, driven by offshore mega-projects like Thor and prototype installations such as Vestas's 15 MW V236 at Thyborøn. Larger rotors deliver >60% capacity factors in Danish waters, cutting foundation counts and installation days, even though they demand higher crane capacities.

As OEM roadmaps shift toward 18-20 MW machines for post-2030 rollouts, foundation design and grid-code compliance will remain bottlenecks. Denmark's R&D institutions, notably DTU, are already modeling 22 MW reference turbines to capture future scale efficiencies. Over time, the Denmark wind energy market size will increasingly concentrate in the super-large class offshore, while onshore caps out near 6 MW due to transport logistics.

By Application: PPA-Led Commercial & Industrial Uptick

Utility-scale assets held 59.5% of capacity in 2024, reflecting historic reliance on state auctions. Yet the commercial and industrial segment is growing faster, at 17.5% CAGR, as data-center developers and manufacturers seek fixed-price hedges under Scope 2 disclosure regimes. PPAs with Microsoft, STARK Group, and Amazon illustrate the breadth of demand. Hybrid parks bundling wind, solar, and batteries cater to load-matching needs, not solely energy volumes, thereby diversifying revenue streams for asset owners. Community projects remain niche, mostly because of limited financing depth and competition from larger entities that secure better equipment pricing.

A rising CO₂ price, volatile spot rates, and corporate net-zero targets position the C&I segment to reach 25-30% of the Denmark wind energy market by 2030. If grid-balancing markets mature, hybrid assets could additionally tap ancillary-service payments, providing another upside lever to the Denmark wind energy industry.

Note: Segment shares of all individual segments available upon report purchase

Geography Analysis

Denmark’s western Jutland coastline hosts the densest onshore fleet because of superior wind resources and immediate access to Esbjerg port logistics. Offshore zones in the North Sea and Baltic Sea benefit from shallow waters of 15-40 m, allowing cost-effective monopile foundations. The Viking Link interconnector enables west-to-east power flows, exporting surplus to the UK when domestic demand saturates. Bornholm’s planned Energy Island will serve as a cross-border hub, dispatching into Polish and German grids and producing green hydrogen for northern German industry clusters. This configuration amplifies the Denmark wind energy market size far beyond the country’s 35 TWh annual load.

Regional permitting differences influence build rates. Municipalities in western Jutland approve projects faster thanks to legacy familiarity and local economic gains, whereas Zealand and Funen see heightened opposition tied to tourism and visual impacts. Offshore projects sidestep some of these issues under centralized seabed leasing, but must coordinate with fishing routes and shipping lanes, particularly around the North Sea Energy Island. Should Germany and the Netherlands reach similar renewable penetration by 2030, export margins may shrink, escalating the need for domestic demand sinks such as hydrogen electrolyzers and industrial electrification.

Energinet’s transmission roadmap prioritizes 400 kV reinforcements and DKK 23 billion in substation upgrades, yet construction lags capacity additions. Curtailment incidents in West Jutland already signal localized oversupply. Developers, therefore, cluster new capacity near existing high-voltage nodes or in hybrid parks with storage that can soak up off-peak generation. Long-term, the Denmark wind energy industry will hinge on simultaneously scaling interconnections, storage, and industrial offtake to prevent stranded output when weather-driven surpluses coincide across Europe.