China Solar Energy Market Size & Share Analysis - Growth Trends And Forecast (2025 - 2030)

China Solar Energy Market Trends and Insights

Record-Low Module Prices Drive LCOE Competitiveness

Module prices fell to RMB 0.75/W in early 2024 after China’s manufacturing capacity ballooned to 861 GW against global demand of 600 GW.^{[1]PV Magazine Editorial Team, “China module prices hit record low,” pv-magazine.com} Cost leadership pushed solar LCOE below coal in more than 25 provinces, prompting developers to accelerate gigawatt-scale projects without subsidies. Industry consolidation is inevitable, yet leading firms such as LONGi and JinkoSolar benefit from N-type TOPCon lines that preserve margins.

14th Five-Year Plan Targets Accelerate Capacity Expansion

The 14th Five-Year Plan set a 1,200 GW renewable goal by 2025, with solar expected to add more than 600 GW, spurring provincial quotas of 50 GW in Shandong, 40 GW in Henan, and 35 GW in Jiangsu. Bundling mandates that pair every 1 GW of solar with 200 MW of coal or 100 MW of storage raise project capital costs by up to 20%, channeling market share toward vertically integrated developers able to internalize key inputs.

Corporate PPA Market Transforms Energy Procurement

Transaction volume in China’s green electricity certificate market jumped fourfold to 446 million units in 2024, with 59,000 corporate buyers led by multinationals such as Apple and BMW. Average certificate prices of CNY 50 (USD 7) per MWh increased project IRRs by 1-2 percentage points and allowed coastal manufacturers to procure renewable energy virtually from Northwest generators, mitigating physical transmission bottlenecks.

Mandatory Rooftop PV Policies Drive Distributed Growth

Building code GB 55015-2021 requires solar arrays on new public and commercial structures larger than 2,000 m², aiming for 100 GW of building-integrated capacity by 2030. Compliance hit 65% in 2024 across Tier-1 cities where occupancy permits hinge on system commissioning, and inverter suppliers have rolled out micro-inverter lines suited to complex roof geometries, capturing 40% of this segment.

Grid Congestion Constrains Northwestern Capacity Utilization

Curtailment has subsided nationally but remains above 5% in parts of Xinjiang and Gansu.^{[2]Reuters Correspondent, “China struggles with curtailment in northwestern provinces,” reuters.com} The Qinghai-Henan ±800 kV UHVDC corridor evacuated 8 GW of clean power in its first year but averaged only 60% utilization because receiving grids saturate during off-peak demand. Mandatory two-hour storage for every 10 MW of new capacity adds USD 0.015 per kWh, squeezing project returns in regions where midday wholesale prices drop below USD 0.03 per kWh.

Overseas Trade Barriers to Chinese Modules

More than 1,000 module shipments were detained by U.S. Customs in 2024 under the Uyghur Forced Labor Prevention Act, creating 4-6-week delays and forcing developers to switch suppliers. The European Commission’s anti-subsidy inquiry could levy tariffs of up to 30% in mid-2025, and India’s 40% basic customs duty has effectively shut a market that absorbed 15 GW of exports in 2023. Chinese producers have responded by setting up 30 GW of final assembly in Vietnam, Thailand, and Malaysia, yet anti-circumvention reviews may soon extend duties to those locations.

Segment Analysis

By Technology: N-Type Cells Drive PV Dominance

China's solar energy market size for photovoltaic technology stood at 883 GW in 2024, equaling 99.5% of total installed capacity, while CSP reached 838 MW. N-type variants, TOPCon, and heterojunction expanded their domestic shipment share from 25% in 2023 to 45% in 2024, encouraged by LONGi's world-leading 27.09% cell efficiency and Trina's 26.5% milestone. CSP is slated to grow at a 19.3% CAGR, buoyed by a feed-in premium of CNY 1.5 (USD 0.21) per kWh that cushions its three-times-higher capex compared with.

Perovskite-silicon tandems touched 33.9% laboratory efficiency in 2024, and pilot lines targeting mass production by 2027 suggest future cost parity with current mono-crystalline units. Hybrid CSP-PV projects under construction in Qinghai, pairing 200 MW of thermal storage with 1 GW of PV, promise four-hour post-sunset dispatch and 2 percentage-point higher IRRs versus standalone PV. Off-grid PV remains below 9% of yearly additions but serves strategic niches such as telecom base stations and border surveillance, where diesel displacement justifies premium pricing

Note: Segment shares of all individual segments available upon report purchase

By Connection Type: Grid Parity Cements On-Grid Supremacy

On-grid capacity represented 91.0% of the China solar energy market in 2024 and is forecast to climb at a 15.8% CAGR through 2030 as nearly 455 GW of desert-based projects move forward. Auction clearing prices between USD 0.025 and 0.035 per kWh undercut coal in 20 provinces, locking solar in as the marginal generation source. Fast-tracking rules allowed Jiangsu and Zhejiang grid companies to approve 95% of on-grid applications within 90 days, whereas off-grid systems often wait half a year for compliance inspections.

Off-grid installations are expanding by 12.5% annually in hard-to-reach communities across Tibet, Sichuan, and Yunnan. Financing is frequently backed by the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank, whose USD 500 million facility aims to electrify 2 million homes but relies on subsidized tariffs capped at USD 0.10 per kWh to maintain affordability. Lithium iron phosphate batteries, now priced at USD 150 per kWh, deliver five-hour autonomy yet require replacement after eight years, affecting the total cost of ownership

By End-User: C&I Rooftops Outpace Utility Growth

Utility-scale projects commanded 70.6% of aggregate capacity in 2024, reflecting 180 GW under the portfolios of state-owned heavyweights such as State Power Investment Corporation and China Three Gorges. However, commercial and industrial rooftops are projected to advance at a 16.5% CAGR, with paybacks of four to six years in Jiangsu, where electricity averages above USD 0.10 per kWh. Zhejiang sweetens the economics by paying CNY 0.3 (USD 0.04) per kWh for surplus exports, while Guangdong exempts rooftop arrays from land-use taxes, trimming capex by 10%.

Residential systems contributed 12% of 2024 additions. “Whole-county” programs in Shandong have connected 1.2 million homes, achieving 8% penetration and supporting household incomes through net-metering credits pegged at 90% of retail tariffs. Shanghai’s more generous crediting further encourages battery pairing, although Hebei’s 50% ratio dampens adoption.

Note: Segment shares of all individual segments available upon report purchase

Geography Analysis

Northwestern provinces, Xinjiang, Inner Mongolia, and Qinghai, added more than 40% of new utility PV in 2024, capitalizing on solar insolation above 1,200 kWh/m² and first-year utilization over 900 hours.^{[3]China Meteorological Administration, “Annual Solar Resource Bulletin 2024,” cma.gov.cn} However, distance from demand centers necessitates heavy-duty UHVDC lines such as the ±800 kV Gansu–Zhejiang corridor that will transmit 40 billion kWh annually on completion in 2027.^{[4]People’s Daily, “Jinsha River–Hubei UHVDC line delivers first power,” people.cn}

Eastern coastal provinces, including Jiangsu, Zhejiang, and Guangdong, collectively surpassed 100 GW of distributed capacity thanks to dense load centers, robust rooftop stock, and favorable net-billing schemes. Shandong’s local grids struggle to absorb midday surpluses, triggering targeted reinforcement and storage incentives that mitigate curtailment. These initiatives diversify growth across the Chinese solar energy market while balancing regional resource disparities.

The Northwest Power Grid delivered 100.5 billion kWh of renewable energy across provincial borders in 2024, representing more than 60% of national long-distance green-power flows. Proactive interconnection planning underpins national carbon-neutrality ambitions and integrates large-scale storage initiatives such as molten-salt CSP in desert hubs. As transmission projects come online, intraregional portfolio balancing should unlock latent capacity reserves, lifting overall utilization in the Chinese solar energy market.