West Africa Refined Petroleum Products Market Size & Share Analysis - Growth Trends and Forecast (2026 - 2031)

West Africa Refined Petroleum Products Market Trends and Insights

Rising Vehicle-Fleet Fuel Demand

Vehicle registrations keep climbing as urbanization and ride-hailing services spread across Lagos, Accra, and Abidjan. Commercial fleets endured diesel and petrol price jumps exceeding 400% between 2023 and 2026, yet maintained mileage by passing fuel costs to end users. By contrast, price-sensitive households are switching to LPG and CNG, helped by Lagos-based conversion schemes that cut per-kilometer costs by roughly 70% compared with petrol.^{[1]Presidential CNG Initiative, “Roadmap for gas-powered mobility,” pi-cng.gov.ng} As a result, the West Africa refined petroleum products market continues to depend on diesel for logistics even as gasoline growth moderates. Ghana’s 385 million-liter product exports in 2024 underscored its re-export role to landlocked Sahel states. This divergence suggests sustained commercial demand but softer consumer gasoline throughput over the forecast horizon.

Deregulation & Subsidy Phase-Out Attracting Investment

Nigeria redirected more than USD 5 billion in yearly fiscal savings after scrapping fuel subsidies in 2023, clearing headroom for private downstream projects. Dangote Refinery secured naira-denominated crude supply, shielding operations from dollar scarcity that stalled state refineries. International marketers such as TotalEnergies lifted their network count to about 540 outlets by 2024, while Mobil Oil Nigeria committed NGN 100 billion to station automation and digital payments. Regional traders in Benin and Niger have begun signing direct Dangote off-take deals, trimming supply-chain costs up to 20%.^{[2]Economic Community of West African States, “Harmonized downstream policy framework,” ecowas.int} Nonetheless, the absence of a transparent pricing formula fuels spot-market volatility, obliging distributors to carry larger working-capital buffers.

High Import Reliance Due to Refinery Deficits

Land-locked Benin, Burkina Faso, Mali, and Niger still import most refined fuels via coastal depots, exposing them to freight surcharges and currency swings. Import dependence is forecast to dent long-run West Africa refined petroleum products market growth until new regional capacity comes online. Persistent deficits also spur informal cross-border trade, widening tax leakages that erode state revenues earmarked for infrastructure. Governments are therefore fast-tracking port and storage expansions, although execution delays keep import reliance stubbornly high.

Modular Refinery Build-Out Enabling Intra-Regional Trade

Compact 5,000–12,000 barrel-per-day plants in Imo State and northern Nigeria bypass congested ports and deliver fuels within 200 kilometers at costs 10%–15% below Apapa-cleared cargoes. Niger is leveraging these hubs through formal supply contracts that curb smuggling and customs losses. Additional LPG storage, projected at 700,000 metric tonnes by 2040, will co-locate with modular bottling plants, accelerating penetration in underserved Sahel households. Together, these shifts broaden intra-regional trade corridors and temper logistics premiums in the West Africa refined petroleum products market.

Price Volatility & Currency Depreciation

The naira weakened from NGN 460 per USD in 2023 to NGN 1,675 per USD by January 2026, pushing petrol prices near NGN 1,030 per liter and compressing household purchasing power. NNPC accrued roughly USD 6 billion in arrears by September 2024, pivoting to crude-for-product swaps that fix exchange rates but curtail price flexibility. Dangote temporarily undercut retail benchmarks at NGN 899.50 per liter in 2024, yet the razor-thin margin discouraged station upgrades and expansions. Similar depreciation pressures shook the Ghanaian cedi and widened euro-naira mismatches under Benin’s CFA peg, complicating hedging strategies for importers. Such volatility deters long-term contracting in the West Africa refined petroleum products market.

Port, Pipeline & Storage Infrastructure Bottlenecks

Apapa and Tin Can Island handle over 70% of Nigeria’s seaborne fuel, yet vessel turnaround averages 21 days versus a regional norm of seven, saddling importers with daily demurrage of USD 15,000–25,000.^{[3]Nigerian Ports Authority, “Monthly port performance report,” npa.gov.ng} Inland, the 330-kilometer System 2B pipeline runs below 40% capacity due to vandalism, forcing truck haulage that adds NGN 20 per liter to inland prices.^{[4]Nigerian National Petroleum Company, “Downstream operations update,” nnpcgroup.com} Cotonou’s tank farms offer 150,000 cubic meters against a 300,000-cubic-meter need, triggering seasonal shortages in the Sahel. Ghana’s USD 12 billion Nawule hub will ease regional tightness after 2028, but interim bottlenecks stunt throughput, limiting overall West Africa refined petroleum products market growth.

Segment Analysis

By Product Type: Diesel Anchors, LPG Accelerates

Diesel accounted for 35.5% of the 2025 market, underpinned by logistics fleets and back-up power generation where grid reliability stands below 60%. Such resilience ensures diesel remains the commercial backbone of the West Africa refined petroleum products market over the forecast horizon. At the same time, Dangote dedicates more than 60% of export barrels to diesel and fuel oil, benefiting from European winter demand peaks. However, domestic gasoline growth is moderating as Oando’s petrol imports fell to zero cargoes in the first nine months of 2025 after Dangote met 60% of Nigeria’s needs.

LPG is set to expand at a 7.3% CAGR, the fastest among product types, as Nigeria targets 15 million metric tonnes annually by 2030 and Ghana eyes 50% household penetration. Subsidized cylinder programs and new bottling plants, such as Puma Energy’s Tema facility processing 1,200 cylinders per hour, are unlocking residential adoption. Kerosene usage is retreating, while aviation fuel enjoys steady uplift from new routes at Lagos, Accra, and Abidjan. Bitumen and naphtha volumes rise in tandem with infrastructure and petrochemical projects, hinting at a broader downstream diversification within the West Africa refined petroleum products market.

Note: Segment shares of all individual segments available upon report purchase

By Sulfur Content: Transition Underway, High-Sulfur Persists

High-sulfur fuels retained a 54.9% share in 2025, reflecting legacy generators and simple topping refineries. Yet low-sulfur products are on a 6.2% CAGR trajectory to 2031 as IMO 2020 and ECOWAS rules tighten emission limits. Global marine demand moved to a 75% VLSFO-dominant mix by 2025, stimulating tank upgrades in Takoradi and Abidjan to accommodate cleaner grades. Dangote’s hydrocrackers now output Euro-V gasoline and 10-ppm diesel, capturing premium export differentials while meeting domestic quality mandates.

Scrubber-equipped vessels still lift high-sulfur fuel oil, mainly destined for Nigerian and Ghanaian power plants where environmental tariffs remain low. Modular refineries lacking secondary conversion generate higher-sulfur outputs that circulate inland, where enforcement is softer. Over time, policy pressure and rising access to cleaner barrels will tilt the West Africa refined petroleum products market toward lower-sulfur blends, although a complete phase-out remains years away, given installed asset profiles.

By Distribution Channel: Retail Dominates, Digital Gains

Retail outlets commanded 50.7% of 2025 deliveries, led by TotalEnergies’ roughly 540 Nigerian stations and Mobil’s 200 Mobil-branded outlets. These networks anchor brand visibility and offer ancillary services such as lubricants and convenience retailing, cementing their role in the West Africa refined petroleum products market. Margins, however, narrowed to NGN 20–30 per liter after Dangote’s December 2024 pricing undercut NNPC benchmarks, pressuring operators to automate and diversify revenue streams.

Online and automated delivery platforms are scaling at a 7.8% CAGR, propelled by fintech uptake that lets fleets order fuel via mobile apps and receive same-day drop-offs. Start-ups in Lagos and Accra deploy GPS-tracked mini-tankers, eliminating queue times. Bulk contracts with mines and factories remain indispensable, but require credit insurance beyond the reach of small independents. Regulatory demands for a 1-million-liter minimum storage capacity further consolidate market power among vertically integrated players, reshaping competitive contours of the West Africa refined petroleum products industry.

Note: Segment shares of all individual segments available upon report purchase

By End-Use Sector: Transportation Leads, Petrochemicals Surge

Transportation absorbed 60.1% of 2025 volumes, reflecting heavy truck traffic on the Abidjan–Lagos corridor and booming ride-hailing fleets. Diesel retention in this segment safeguards baseline demand for the West Africa refined petroleum products market even during price spikes. Power-generation fuel oil persists as a stopgap in Nigeria, where industries self-generate up to 60% of electricity.

Petrochemicals will grow at a 6.5% CAGR to 2031 as Dangote’s polypropylene and naphtha units come online, supplying feedstock for packaging, textiles, and auto parts. Residential and commercial users transition from kerosene to LPG, supported by safety-verified cylinders and targeted subsidies. Agriculture and mining uphold steady diesel draws, while marine bunkering gains from revamped low-sulfur standards at Takoradi and Abidjan. Together, these shifts broaden end-use diversity and stabilize overall consumption patterns within the West Africa refined petroleum products market.

Geography Analysis

Nigeria held 54.8% of regional demand in 2025 on the back of a 220 million population and dense vehicle fleet. The West Africa refined petroleum products market size in Nigeria alone benefited from Dangote, covering 60% of petrol needs by mid-2025, trimming annual import bills by up to USD 30 billion. Yet subsidy removal and a weaker naira lifted pump prices to nearly NGN 1,030 per liter by 2026, straining household budgets and accelerating CNG conversions under the 1-million-vehicle initiative. Modular refineries like Waltersmith’s plant in Imo State, expanding to 10,000 barrels per day in 2025, offer inland supply at 10%–15% lower landed cost versus coastal depots.

Ghana and Côte d’Ivoire are emerging as bunkering and re-export pivots. Takoradi’s 13.5 million-liter marine gas-oil farm and Bunker Partner’s Africa Star 1 barge in Abidjan are funneling VLSFO to vessels rerouted from the Red Sea. Ghana’s 385 million-liter exports in 2024 highlight its gateway role, while the USD 12 billion Nawule hub, set for 2028 completion, will add 300,000 barrels per day of refining and 3 million cubic meters of storage, reinforcing Ghana’s processing stature. Côte d’Ivoire’s USD 950 million China Exim-financed terminal handled 40 million tonnes of cargo in 2024, spurring lubricant and bunker demand.

Niger’s 6.4% CAGR through 2031 tops the region as formal cross-border trade replaces smuggling, enabled by modular supply links from northern Nigeria. Benin’s Cotonou port faces tank-farm shortfalls that trigger Harmattan-season shortages, but expansion plans are underway. Burkina Faso and Mali rely on over-the-road supply via Abidjan and Cotonou, with security risks inflating logistics premiums. Smaller coastal states, Togo, Liberia, Sierra Leone, and Gambia, remain marginal but stand to benefit from harmonized ECOWAS fuel-quality standards aimed at smoothing intra-regional trade barriers.

Note: Segment shares of all individual segments available upon report purchase