Market Overview
| Study Period | 2021 - 2031 |
|---|---|
| Base Year For Estimation | 2025 |
| Forecast Data Period | 2026 - 2031 |
| Market Volume (2026) | 282.34 gigawatt |
| Market Volume (2031) | 350.54 gigawatt |
| Growth Rate (2026 - 2031) | 4.42% CAGR |
| Market Concentration | Medium |
Major Players *Disclaimer: Major Players sorted in no particular order Image © Mordor Intelligence. Reuse requires attribution under CC BY 4.0. | |
Brazil Power Market Analysis by Mordor Intelligence
The Brazil Power Market size in terms of installed base is expected to grow from 282.34 gigawatt in 2026 to 350.54 gigawatt by 2031, at a CAGR of 4.42% during the forecast period (2026-2031).
This trajectory reflects a decisive pivot away from large hydro toward a diversified renewable portfolio, spurred by the 2022 privatization of Eletrobras, which unlocked BRL 17 billion (USD 3.4 billion) in generation and transmission capital through 2027. Annual transmission auctions mobilized BRL 12.4 billion (USD 2.5 billion) in 2025 to relieve Northeast‐to‐Southeast grid congestion, enabling wind and solar producers to curtail fewer gigawatt-hours. Net-metering Law 14.300/2022 accelerated distributed solar to 40 GW by June 2025, while pre-salt associated gas supports an 800 MW gas-fired build-out that backs up intermittent renewables. Collectively, these drivers give the Brazil power market scalable pathways to balance reliability, decarbonization, and affordability targets through 2031.
Key Report Takeaways
- By power source, renewables captured 86.75% of the Brazil power market share in 2025 and are forecast to grow at a 5.17% CAGR through 2031.
- By end user, the Commercial and Industrial segment posted the fastest expansion at a 13.72% CAGR through 2031, while regulated utilities retained 52.28% of demand in 2025.
Note: Market size and forecast figures in this report are generated using Mordor Intelligence’s proprietary estimation framework, updated with the latest available data and insights as of January 2026.
Brazil Power Market Trends and Insights
Drivers Impact Analysis
| Driver | (~) % Impact on CAGR Forecast | Geographic Relevance | Impact Timeline |
|---|---|---|---|
| Privatization of Eletrobras Unlocking Capex Surge in Generation & T&D | +0.8% | National, with concentration in Southeast and South generation assets | Medium term (2-4 years) |
| Long-Term Expansion Plan 2032 Prioritizing Non-Hydro Renewables | +1.2% | National, strongest in Northeast (wind) and Central-West (solar) | Long term (≥ 4 years) |
| Annual Transmission Auctions Catalyzing Grid Expansion across North-Northeast | +0.7% | North-Northeast corridor, spillover to Southeast load centers | Medium term (2-4 years) |
| Net-Metering Law (14.300/2022) Accelerating Distributed Solar Adoption | +0.9% | National, early gains in São Paulo, Minas Gerais, Rio Grande do Sul | Short term (≤ 2 years) |
| Gas-to-Power Build-out Leveraging Pre-Salt Associated Gas | +0.5% | Southeast coastal states (Rio de Janeiro, São Paulo) | Medium term (2-4 years) |
| Corporate PPA Demand for 24/7 Clean Power from Data Centers & Mining | +0.6% | Southeast (data centers), North (mining operations) | Short term (≤ 2 years) |
| Source: Mordor Intelligence | |||
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Privatization Of Eletrobras Unlocking Capex Surge In Generation & T&D
The 2022 privatization removed state-imposed capital constraints, enabling Eletrobras to invest BRL 1.6 billion (USD 320 million) in 2025 and BRL 17 billion (USD 3.4 billion) across 2023-2027 in modernizing hydro fleets and building new high-voltage corridors. Private ownership imposes performance incentives that accelerate project schedules and attract co-investment from global infrastructure funds. As the utility’s market share slides, Neoenergia, Enel Brasil, CPFL Energia, and Engie Brasil are scaling renewables and smart-grid deployments, intensifying competition that ultimately curbs end-user tariffs.
Long-Term Expansion Plan 2034 Prioritizing Non-Hydro Renewables
EPE’s Plan delimits a path to 83% renewable generation by 2031, emphasizing modular wind and solar over large hydro that faces licensing headwinds.[1]Empresa de Pesquisa Energética, “Plano Decenal de Expansão de Energia 2032,” epe.gov.br Northeast wind capacity factors average above 50%, and Central-West solar additions proceed on 18-24 month schedules. The Plan earmarks battery storage as a grid-balancing tool, positioning behind-the-meter systems to scale once ANEEL finalises ancillary-services participation rules.
Annual Transmission Auctions Catalysing Grid Expansion across North-Northeast
ANEEL’s 2025 auction awarded 3,500 km of new high-voltage lines under 30-year concessions, drawing domestic operators such as ISA CTEEP and global entrants including State Grid Brazil Holding.[2]Agência Nacional de Energia Elétrica, “Leilão de Transmissão 02/2025,” aneel.gov.brThe corridors will evacuate stranded Northeast renewables to Southeast load centers, mitigating 2024 curtailments that idled 2 GW of wind farms. Regulated tariffs secure predictable returns that crowd in private capital previously concentrated in generation.
Net-Metering Law 14.300/2022 Accelerating Distributed Solar Adoption
Regulatory clarity on grid-access fees and compensation mechanisms propelled distributed generation to 40 GW by mid-2025, with São Paulo, Minas Gerais, and Rio Grande do Sul accounting for 60% of new rooftops. Remote net-metering provisions allow urban consumers to credit rural solar output, spawning aggregator platforms that pool small systems into virtual power plants eligible for future ancillary revenues.
Restraints Impact Analysis
| Restraint | (~) % Impact on CAGR Forecast | Geographic Relevance | Impact Timeline |
|---|---|---|---|
| Drought-induced hydrological risk | -0.3% | Amazon and São Francisco basins | Short term (≤ 2 years) |
| Environmental licensing bottlenecks | -0.1% | Nationwide, acute in Amazon and Atlantic Forest | Medium term (2-4 years) |
| Foreign-exchange volatility on equipment imports | -0.05% | Nationwide, Southeast manufacturing nodes | Short term (≤ 2 years) |
| High technical and commercial losses in Northern distribution | -0.05% | Amazonas, Pará, Roraima | Long term (≥ 4 years) |
| Source: Mordor Intelligence | |||
Drought-Induced Hydrological Risk Impacting Hydro Dominant Mix
Severe 2024 drought pushed Belo Monte, Santo Antônio, and Jirau to below 10% of capacity in September, forcing the system operator to dispatch costly thermal units and import regional power. Climate models foresee a 7-30% drop in river-flow energy potential by 2030, heightening reliance on LNG imports that doubled regasification to 5.1 Bcf/d by August 2025.[3]U.S. Energy Information Administration, “Brazil Country Analysis Brief,” eia.gov
Environmental Licensing Bottlenecks for Large-Scale Projects
IBAMA approval times reached 5-7 years through 2024, stalling BRL 100 billion (USD 20 billion) in renewable pipelines. A July 2025 law sets binding timelines and digital filings, yet effectiveness hinges on agency staffing and state adherence.
Segment Analysis
By Power Source: Renewables Anchor Growth Amid Hydro Decline
Renewables accounted for 86.75% of installed capacity in 2025, and their share of the Brazil power market is rising at a 5.17% CAGR, eclipsing the 4.42% overall growth rate. Wind additions in Bahia and Ceará benefit from 50% capacity factors, while distributed solar scaled to 40 GW under Law 14.300/2022. Biomass cogeneration moderates dry-season hydro deficits, though feedstock competition caps expansion. Hydro still dominates absolute megawatts, yet hydrological volatility and licensing hurdles redirect capex toward run-of-river upgrades rather than new dams.
Thermal technologies comprise 13.25% of the Brazil power market. Natural gas is the lone growth engine, with the Route 3-linked 800 MW portfolio using pre-salt supply priced in BRL, insulating developers from FX spikes. Coal remains legacy, and oil-diesel units operate mainly in isolated Amazon micro-grids. Nuclear’s two-unit Angra complex offers baseload stability, but cost overruns impede Angra 3. The result is a hybrid generation mix pairing intermittent renewables with flexible gas and emerging batteries to secure reliability.
Note: Segment shares of all individual segments available upon report purchase
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By End User: C&I Segment Accelerates on Free Market Access
Regulated utilities held 52.28% of demand in 2025, yet the Commercial and Industrial slice of the Brazil power market is expanding at 13.72% CAGR after the 500 kW threshold opened competitive procurement. Data centers in São Paulo and Rio de Janeiro value 24/7 renewables backed by storage, while Pará mining houses hedge spot volatility through decade-long PPAs. Omega Energia and digital traders now intermediate bilateral deals that bypass utility mark-ups.
Residential demand grows modestly because rooftop solar offsets grid purchases, a dynamic that accelerates as net-metering grandfathering endures until 2045. Distributors lobby for higher fixed charges to recover stranded wires costs, yet any tariff escalation risks stimulating faster rooftop adoption, further eroding volumetric revenues.
Note: Segment shares of all individual segments available upon report purchase
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Geography Analysis
Regional asymmetries shape the Brazil power market. The Northeast leads renewable build-out, supported by 50% wind capacity factors and BRL 12.4 billion in 2025 transmission concessions that evacuate power to the Southeast. Bahia and Ceará host multi-gigawatt wind clusters from Neoenergia and Engie Brasil, while Piauí solar farms exploit high irradiation near new lines.
The Southeast accounts for 50% of national consumption, with data centers and heavy industry driving C&I PPA demand. Petrobras’ Route 3 pipeline feeds two 400 MW peakers near Rio de Janeiro, bolstering peak reliability.
Hydro-dependent North faces capacity shocks when droughts cut river flows below operating minima, as seen in 2024 when Amazon dams ran at 10%. Distribution networks here lose up to 25% of dispatched energy, prompting targeted smart-grid pilots. Central-West emerges as a solar hotspot, leveraging land availability and proximity to agribusiness loads, while the South retains legacy coal and enjoys cross-border trade with Argentina and Uruguay during tight supply windows.
Competitive Landscape
Post-privatisation, the Brazil power market shows moderate concentration with Eletrobras no longer dominant. Neoenergia, Enel Brasil, CPFL Energia, and Engie Brasil have earmarked a collective BRL 25.8 billion (USD 5.16 billion) for 2024-2025 renewables, transmission, and grid-digitalisation projects. Vertical integration trends see distributors acquiring generation to hedge spot exposure, while independent traders aggregate C&I loads into bilateral blocks.
Technology adoption is a differentiator. ISA CTEEP’s 30 MW/60 MWh battery in São Paulo delivers frequency regulation today and positions the firm for ancillary service revenues post-2026 rule-making.[4]ISA CTEEP, “Battery Energy Storage Project Commissioned in São Paulo,” isacteep.com.br CPFL Energia uses AI for load forecasting, trimming outage durations by 15% in 2025. State Grid Brazil Holding deploys 800 kV HVDC lines that lower long-haul losses, while Omega Energia benefits from auction-free PPAs that capture C&I growth.
Brazil Power Industry Leaders
Centrais Elétricas Brasileiras S.A. (Eletrobrás)
Neoenergia SA
Enel Brasil SA
CPFL Energia SA
Engie Brasil Energia SA
- *Disclaimer: Major Players sorted in no particular order
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Recent Industry Developments
- December 2025: Petrobras, the state-run oil and gas giant of Brazil, inked a deal to purchase a 49.99% stake in the Brazilian subsidiaries of Lightsource bp, a prominent onshore renewable energy developer.
- December 2025: Casa dos Ventos, a renewable energy firm, has entrusted Vestas with a significant turbine supply order, totaling 828MW, for the Dom Inocêncio wind complex in Brazil. Nestled in the south-central region of Piauí, the project takes advantage of the state's renowned robust wind resources.
- December 2025: Equinor, alongside its Brazilian arm Rio Energy, has commenced commercial power generation at the Serra da Babilônia Solar facility in Brazil. This facility, strategically positioned next to the pre-existing Serra da Babilônia Wind, marks Equinor's inaugural hybrid asset. The combined portfolio boasts a capacity of 140 MW from solar and 223 MW from wind.
- November 2025: Brazil's Minister of Mines and Energy, Alexandre Silveira, announced that in 2026, Brazil will auction off two energy transmission lines, scheduling one for each half of the year. The auctions are set to attract investments exceeding 25 billion reais (approximately USD 4.7 billion) and will cover nearly 4,500 kilometers (km) of transmission lines.
Research Methodology Framework and Report Scope
Market Definitions and Key Coverage
Our study defines the Brazil power market as the sum of utility-scale and registered distributed generation assets feeding electricity into the national grid or behind-the-meter systems, measured in installed capacity (gigawatts). The total captures hydropower, thermal, nuclear, wind, solar, and biomass units that are licensed by ANEEL and reported through the National Electric System Operator. According to Mordor Intelligence, this represented 251.06 GW in 2025, with renewables already exceeding four-fifths of the mix.
Scope Exclusion: stand-alone diesel gensets below 5 MW serving temporary or mining loads are outside the study.
Segmentation Overview
- By Power Source
- Thermal (Coal, Natural Gas, Oil and Diesel)
- Nuclear
- Renewables (Solar, Wind, Hydro, Geothermal, Biomass & Waste, Tidal)
- By End User
- Utilities
- Commercial and Industrial
- Residential
- By T&D Voltage Level (Qualitative Analysis only)
- High-Voltage Transmission (Above 230 kV)
- Sub-Transmission (69 to 161 kV)
- Medium-Voltage Distribution (13.2 to 34.5 kV)
- Low-Voltage Distribution (Up to 1 kV)
Detailed Research Methodology and Data Validation
Primary Research
We interviewed grid operators, project developers, distributed-solar installers, and policy advisors across the Southeast, Northeast, and Central-West regions. These conversations validated commissioning dates, assessed curtailment risk, and provided achievable build-out rates for wind and solar, which desktop data alone could not confirm.
Desk Research
Mordor analysts began with public datasets from ANEEL, ONS, EPE's Ten-Year Plan, and IBGE's energy balance sheets, which outline plant capacities, auction results, and regional demand. Complementary insights came from multilateral bodies such as IEA and IRENA, peer-reviewed journals on hydro variability, and investor presentations that disclose pipeline projects and typical capital costs. Subscription assets, including D&B Hoovers for generator financials and Dow Jones Factiva for deal flow, fleshed out ownership changes and project timelines. The sources cited illustrate the breadth of evidence; many additional references informed cross-checks and clarifications.
Market-Sizing & Forecasting
A top-down capacity build-up starts with historical ONS statistics, which are projected through 2030 using announced auction awards, average completion lead times, and expected retirement curves. Bottom-up sanity checks use sampled supplier roll-ups; for example, average turbine rating × contracted tower counts and inverter shipments reported by customs. Key model drivers include GDP-linked electricity demand, annual energy auctions cleared (MW), hydrology trends, distributed generation net-metering enrollments, and average project execution delays. Forecasts employ multivariate regression with scenario analysis to capture sensitivity to drought cycles and policy shifts. Where pipeline data were sparse, we filled gaps with conservative utilization factors derived from expert interviews.
Data Validation & Update Cycle
Every draft model passes a three-tier review: analyst peer review, senior domain lead sign-off, and a variance screen against independent indicators such as equipment imports and corporate capex guidance. Figures refresh annually, with interim updates triggered by extraordinary events like large auction rounds or new grid codes.
Why Mordor's Brazil Power Baseline Commands Reliability
Published estimates differ because firms choose different cut-off years, treat behind-the-meter solar unevenly, or assume optimistic build speeds. Mordor's disciplined scope, verified project pipeline, and yearly refresh keep our baseline grounded in what can be physically delivered.
Benchmark of Current-Year Values
Benchmark comparison
| Market Size | Anonymized source | Primary gap driver |
|---|---|---|
| 251.06 GW (2025) | Mordor Intelligence | - |
| 236.3 GW (2024) | Global Consultancy A | Omits distributed solar; older base year; excludes autoproducers |
| 209 GW (2024) | Trade Journal B | Counts only grid-connected plants; leaves out projects under testing |
The comparison shows that lower figures stem from narrower scopes or older baselines, while higher outliers often double-count announced projects. By aligning capacity additions with auction contracts and verified commissioning progress, Mordor delivers a balanced, transparent starting point that decision-makers can trust.
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Key Questions Answered in the Report
How large is the Brazil power market in 2026?
Installed capacity totals 282.34 GW in 2026, and the Brazil power market size is forecast at 350.54 GW by 2031.
What is driving the fastest growth in Brazil’s generation mix?
Wind and solar dominate additions due to favorable capacity factors, clear auction rules, and the Long-Term Expansion Plan 2032 that targets an 83% renewable share by 2031.
Why is the Commercial and Industrial segment expanding so quickly?
MME Ordinance 50/2022 lets consumers above 500 kW buy directly from generators, so data centers and miners sign PPAs to secure clean power and predictable prices.
How are transmission investments addressing renewable curtailment?
ANEEL’s 2025 auction awarded 3,500 km of new high-voltage lines that link Northeast wind corridors to Southeast load centers, reducing 2024 curtailments of 2 GW.
What role will natural gas play through 2031?
Pre-salt associated gas feeds new peaker plants that provide flexible backup for intermittent renewables, lowering reliance on imported LNG and stabilizing evening peaks.
