Market Overview
| Study Period | 2020 - 2030 |
|---|---|
| Base Year For Estimation | 2024 |
| Forecast Data Period | 2025 - 2030 |
| Market Volume (2025) | 251.06 gigawatt |
| Market Volume (2030) | 369.74 gigawatt |
| Growth Rate (2025 - 2030) | 8.05% CAGR |
| Market Concentration | Medium |
Major Players
*Disclaimer: Major Players sorted in no particular order Image © Mordor Intelligence. Reuse requires attribution under CC BY 4.0. |
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Brazil Power Market Analysis by Mordor Intelligence
The Brazil Power Market size in terms of installed base is expected to grow from 251.06 gigawatt in 2025 to 369.74 gigawatt by 2030, at a CAGR of 8.05% during the forecast period (2025-2030).
Hydropower remains the single-largest source, yet wind and solar additions are accelerating as investors respond to supportive auctions and long-term decarbonization targets. Transmission build-outs, including a planned ultra-high-voltage direct-current link from the Northeast to the Southeast, underpin resource diversification while addressing geographic load imbalances. Privatization of Eletrobras has unlocked access to global capital markets, encouraging private developers to compete in both generation and grid concessions. Distributed generation and corporate power purchase agreements add further momentum, especially for solar, as large industrial and data center consumers seek 24/7 clean supply.
Key Report Takeaways
- By generation source, hydropower led with 55% of the Brazil power market share in 2024; solar capacity is projected to expand at an 18.2% CAGR to 2030.
- By voltage level, the 69 to 230 kV high-voltage segment held 45% of the Brazil power market size in 2024, while the above 230 kV extra-high segment is advancing at a 9.65% CAGR through 2030.
Brazil Power Market Trends and Insights
Drivers Impact Analysis
| Driver | (~) % Impact on CAGR Forecast | Geographic Relevance | Impact Timeline |
|---|---|---|---|
| Privatization of Eletrobras unlocking capex surge in generation & T&D | +1.20% | National, concentrated in Southeast & Northeast | Medium term (2–4 years) |
| Long-Term Expansion Plan 2032 prioritizing non-hydro renewables | +0.90% | National, focus on Northeast & Southeast | Long term (≥ 4 years) |
| Annual transmission auctions catalyzing grid expansion | +0.70% | North-Northeast, spillover to Central-West | Medium term (2–4 years) |
| Net-metering Law 14.300/2022 accelerating distributed solar | +0.50% | National, concentration in South & Southeast | Short term (≤ 2 years) |
| Gas-to-Power Build-out Leveraging Pre-Salt Associated Gas | +0.3% | Southeast (Rio de Janeiro, São Paulo) | Medium term (2-4 years) |
| Corporate PPA Demand for 24/7 Clean Power from Data Centers & Mining | +0.2% | Southeast and South | Short term (≤ 2 years) |
| Source: Mordor Intelligence | |||
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Privatization of Eletrobras Unlocking Capex Surge in Generation and T&D
Operational metrics improved after the 2022 share sale, and by mid-2024, the utility held USD 5.1 billion in cash, enabling aggressive bids in transmission auctions and brownfield hydro refurbishments. Revenues reached USD 8.5 billion from generation and USD 5.8 billion from transmission in 2024, reflecting stable cash flows and stronger credit ratings. International issuance of USD 750 million infrastructure notes broadened investor reach, while board restructuring in 2025 signaled deeper governance alignment with minority shareholders.[1]
Long-Term Expansion Plan 2032 Prioritizing Non-Hydro Renewables
The national plan embeds targets that lift wind and solar to 45 GW each by 2032, up from a combined 23 GW in 2024. Northeast provinces host almost three-quarters of wind projects, supported by competitive capacity factors and proximity to export-oriented hydrogen hubs. Solar rooftop installations surpassed 1 million systems in early 2025 as households and SMEs leveraged stable net-metering rules. Investment needs of USD 90 billion through 2032 span distributed generation, hydro modernization, and isolated-system electrification.[2]Ministry of Mines and Energy-Brazil, “Long-Term Expansion Plan 2032,” gov.br
Annual Transmission Auctions Catalyzing Grid Expansion across North-Northeast
Successive concession rounds awarded more than 26 GW of new interconnections between 2020 and 2024. The October 2025 auction will allocate 6,000 km of lines to relieve congestion that forces wind and solar curtailment in the Northeast. China-Brazil UHVDC technology scheduled for 2029 will move 11 GW across 2,500 km, lowering spot price volatility and cutting 27 million tCO₂e per year.
Net-Metering Law 14.300/2022 Accelerating Distributed Solar Adoption
Despite gradual charges for grid use, project returns remain double-digits across most load profiles. The average 5.77% hit to internal rates of return since 2023 has not derailed investments; rather, installations are forecast to reach 37.2 GW by 2031. South and Southeast consumers dominate uptake, supported by robust retail tariffs and simplified interconnection procedures.
Restraints Impact Analysis
| Restraint | (~) % Impact on CAGR Forecast | Geographic Relevance | Impact Timeline |
|---|---|---|---|
| Drought-Induced Hydrological Risk Impacting Hydro Dominant Mix | -0.60% | National, with severe impact in Southeast and Northeast | Medium term (2-4 years) |
| Environmental Licensing Bottlenecks for Large-Scale Projects | -0.40% | Amazon region and environmentally sensitive areas | Long term (≥ 4 years) |
| FX Volatility Elevating Import Costs of Turbine & HV Equipment | -0.3% | National | Short term (≤ 2 years) |
| Persistent Technical & Commercial Losses in Northern Distribution Networks | -0.2% | North and Northeast regions | Medium term (2-4 years) |
| Source: Mordor Intelligence | |||
Drought-Induced Hydrological Risk Impacting Hydro Dominant Mix
Brazil generates 55% of its electricity from hydropower, making it vulnerable to climate variability and drought. As irregular rainfall threatens electricity reliability, Brazil is diversifying its energy sources beyond hydropower. Research suggests that when strategically deployed across regions, hydropower can serve as a virtual battery, complementing wind and solar energy. This challenge is most pronounced in the Southeast and Northeast regions, where past droughts have resulted in energy rationing and a costly dependence on thermal generation.
Environmental Licensing Bottlenecks for Large-Scale Projects
In Brazil, large-scale energy projects, especially in the environmentally sensitive Amazon region, face hurdles due to environmental licensing bottlenecks. These regulatory challenges prolong project timelines and escalate costs, dampening investor confidence and stunting market growth. Adding to the complexity, Brazil recently declared an end to its mega-dam policy in the Amazon. While this move is a win for the environment, it underscores the need for alternative energy infrastructure strategies. The licensing process, entailing multiple agencies and stakeholders, often challenges coordination, leading to notable project delays.
Segment Analysis
By Generation Source: Renewable Dominance Intensifies
The Brazil power market size for generation reached 230 GW in 2024, with hydropower supplying 55% of output. Wind capacity climbed past 27 GW and utility-scale solar crossed the 10 GW mark, representing the fastest-growing slices of the Brazil power market. Distributed photovoltaic systems added a further 17 GW, underscoring how small-scale assets now complement centralized dams. By 2030, wind and solar together are expected to cross 110 GW, underpinning the 8.05% overall CAGR.
Governance stability and auction-driven long-term contracts have fostered low borrowing costs that benefit renewable bids. Average onshore wind strike prices settled at USD 25/MWh in 2024, while utility solar cleared at below USD 23/MWh, ensuring continued price leadership. Bioenergy remains relevant in sugar-cane-producing states, contributing to baseload supply and balancing seasonal hydro inflows. The diversified mix positions the Brazil power market to maintain its global top-five ranking for clean-energy penetration.
Note: Segment shares of all individual segments available upon report purchase
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By Voltage Level: Extra-High Networks Expand Rapidly
High-voltage lines between 69 kV and 230 kV commanded 45% of the Brazil power market share for transmission assets in 2024. The above 230 kV category, a proxy for long-haul inter-regional highways, is forecast to show a 9.7% CAGR through 2030 as new corridors evacuate surplus renewables from the Northeast. The Brazil power market size of the extra-high segment is set to reach nearly 80,000 km by 2030.
Capital expenditure appetite has broadened beyond legacy state utilities, with private consortia winning 78% of auctioned line-km since 2021. Digital substations, synchrophasor deployment, and flexible alternating-current technology support stability on corridors that already move more than 11 GW from the North to the Southeast. New routes often integrate fiber-optic conduits, creating incremental revenue streams for concessionaires.
Geography Analysis
The Northeast led renewables additions, holding 47% of new wind and solar capacity in 2024 and recording the lowest weighted-average generation cost nationwide. State governments in Bahia, Rio Grande do Norte, and Piauí align their fiscal incentives with federal auctions, accelerating pipeline financing. As Brazil's power market continues to climb, policymakers prioritize port upgrades to handle nacelles and blades for turbines exceeding 6 MW.
The Southeast still accounts for nearly 55% of total demand, anchored by mining, metallurgy, and a rapidly expanding hyperscale data-center footprint. Hydropower reservoirs in Minas Gerais and São Paulo stabilize frequency and voltage, while gas-fired peakers in Rio de Janeiro backstop peaking demand. Rising corporate procurement of green power boosts behind-the-meter solar at industrial parks, improving grid flexibility and lowering transmission losses.
Population density is lower in the North and Central-West, yet these regions host large-scale hydro and biomass complexes adjacent to agricultural frontiers. Inter-basin transmission upgrades enable energy exchanges that optimize reservoir inflows during dry seasons. Further south, Paraná and Santa Catarina leverage distributed small hydropower plants and rising rooftop PV saturation. Local distribution utilities pilot vehicle-to-grid demonstrations that could unlock ancillary service revenues by 2030.
Competitive Landscape
The top five generation groups—Eletrobras, Neoenergia, Engie Brasil, Enel Brasil, and CPFL Energia—controlled a combined 62% of utility-scale capacity in 2024. Following privatization, Eletrobras trimmed its thermal exposure, re-weighted toward refurbished hydro, and achieved a 12.8% return on invested capital. Neoenergia pivoted to onshore wind clusters and secured long-dated PPAs with bauxite smelters, locking in index-linked revenues.
Enel Brasil expanded its distributed generation arm to 1.3 GW of rooftop and ground-mount solar, bundling energy management services for residential consumers. CPFL Energia strengthened its position in the >230 kV segment, winning 1,060 km of lines in the 2024 auction and adopting modular substation designs to cut construction time by 30%. Engie Brasil’s acquisition of biomethane developer Gás Verde adds a circular-economy angle, converting landfill waste to dispatchable power and grid-quality gas.
Foreign strategic investors and infrastructure funds target transmission concessions, attracted by regulated returns averaging 11.6%. Chinese equipment suppliers provide high-voltage hardware under engineering-procurement-construction contracts, while Japanese trading houses offer mezzanine finance for hybrid wind-solar-storage projects. Local pension funds participate in debenture placements that carry tax-exempt status, creating a diversified funding ecosystem.
Brazil Power Industry Leaders
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Centrais Elétricas Brasileiras S.A. (Eletrobrás)
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Neoenergia SA
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Enel Brasil SA
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CPFL Energia SA
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Engie Brasil Energia SA
- *Disclaimer: Major Players sorted in no particular order
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Recent Industry Developments
- May 2025: Fitch Ratings affirmed Eletrobras at ‘BB’ and revised the outlook to stable, citing improved liquidity and diversified cash flows.
- March 2025: The Ministry of Mines and Energy published board nominees for Eletrobras, formalizing ongoing corporate governance realignment.
- October 2024: NEEL awarded 5,850 km of transmission lines across eight lots, attracting USD 4.5 billion in committed investment.
- August 2024: Eletrobras issued USD 750 million in Rule 144A/Reg S infrastructure bonds, the first under Brazil’s new debenture framework.
Research Methodology Framework and Report Scope
Market Definitions and Key Coverage
Our study defines the Brazil power market as the sum of utility-scale and registered distributed generation assets feeding electricity into the national grid or behind-the-meter systems, measured in installed capacity (gigawatts). The total captures hydropower, thermal, nuclear, wind, solar, and biomass units that are licensed by ANEEL and reported through the National Electric System Operator. According to Mordor Intelligence, this represented 251.06 GW in 2025, with renewables already exceeding four-fifths of the mix.
Scope Exclusion: stand-alone diesel gensets below 5 MW serving temporary or mining loads are outside the study.
Segmentation Overview
- Power Generation (By Source)
- Thermal
- Coal-Fired
- Natural Gas-Fired
- Oil and Diesel-Fired
- Renewables
- Wind
- Solar
- Hydro
- Biomass and Waste-to-Energy
- Nuclear
- Thermal
- Power Transmission & Distribution
- By Voltage
- Low and Medium Voltage
- High Voltage (69 to 230 kV)
- Extra-High and Ultra-High Voltage (Above 230 kV)
- By Component
- Transmission Towers and Lines
- Substations and Switchgear
- Power Transformers
- Cables and Conductors
- By Voltage
Detailed Research Methodology and Data Validation
Primary Research
We interviewed grid operators, project developers, distributed-solar installers, and policy advisors across the Southeast, Northeast, and Central-West regions. These conversations validated commissioning dates, assessed curtailment risk, and provided achievable build-out rates for wind and solar, which desktop data alone could not confirm.
Desk Research
Mordor analysts began with public datasets from ANEEL, ONS, EPE's Ten-Year Plan, and IBGE's energy balance sheets, which outline plant capacities, auction results, and regional demand. Complementary insights came from multilateral bodies such as IEA and IRENA, peer-reviewed journals on hydro variability, and investor presentations that disclose pipeline projects and typical capital costs. Subscription assets, including D&B Hoovers for generator financials and Dow Jones Factiva for deal flow, fleshed out ownership changes and project timelines. The sources cited illustrate the breadth of evidence; many additional references informed cross-checks and clarifications.
Market-Sizing & Forecasting
A top-down capacity build-up starts with historical ONS statistics, which are projected through 2030 using announced auction awards, average completion lead times, and expected retirement curves. Bottom-up sanity checks use sampled supplier roll-ups; for example, average turbine rating × contracted tower counts and inverter shipments reported by customs. Key model drivers include GDP-linked electricity demand, annual energy auctions cleared (MW), hydrology trends, distributed generation net-metering enrollments, and average project execution delays. Forecasts employ multivariate regression with scenario analysis to capture sensitivity to drought cycles and policy shifts. Where pipeline data were sparse, we filled gaps with conservative utilization factors derived from expert interviews.
Data Validation & Update Cycle
Every draft model passes a three-tier review: analyst peer review, senior domain lead sign-off, and a variance screen against independent indicators such as equipment imports and corporate capex guidance. Figures refresh annually, with interim updates triggered by extraordinary events like large auction rounds or new grid codes.
Why Mordor's Brazil Power Baseline Commands Reliability
Published estimates differ because firms choose different cut-off years, treat behind-the-meter solar unevenly, or assume optimistic build speeds. Mordor's disciplined scope, verified project pipeline, and yearly refresh keep our baseline grounded in what can be physically delivered.
Benchmark of Current-Year Values
Benchmark comparison
| Market Size | Anonymized source | Primary gap driver |
|---|---|---|
| 251.06 GW (2025) | Mordor Intelligence | - |
| 236.3 GW (2024) | Global Consultancy A | Omits distributed solar; older base year; excludes autoproducers |
| 209 GW (2024) | Trade Journal B | Counts only grid-connected plants; leaves out projects under testing |
The comparison shows that lower figures stem from narrower scopes or older baselines, while higher outliers often double-count announced projects. By aligning capacity additions with auction contracts and verified commissioning progress, Mordor delivers a balanced, transparent starting point that decision-makers can trust.
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Key Questions Answered in the Report
What is the current size of the Brazil power market?
Installed capacity reached 251.06 GW in 2025 and is projected to climb to 369.74 GW by 2030, reflecting an 8.05% CAGR.
Which energy source dominates Brazil’s generation mix?
Hydropower leads with 55% of installed capacity in 2024, giving Brazil one of the cleanest electricity matrices among G20 nations.
What is the fastest-growing generation technology?
Utility-scale and distributed solar are expanding at a 17–19% CAGR between 2025 and 2030, driven by auctions and supportive net-metering rules.
How quickly is the transmission network expanding?
Extra-high-voltage lines above 230 kV are forecast to grow at a 9–10% CAGR through 2030, helped by annual ANEEL auctions and a forthcoming UHVDC link from the Northeast to the Southeast.
How has Eletrobras’ privatization changed market investment dynamics?
Reduced state control unlocked access to global capital, evidenced by a USD 750 million bond in 2024 and strengthened credit metrics that support aggressive bids in generation and T&D concessions.
What role do distributed generation and corporate PPAs play in growth?
Distributed solar installations are on track to reach 37.2 GW by 2031, while data centers, mining, and other large users increasingly sign 24/7 clean-energy PPAs to meet decarbonization goals.
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