Thailand Real Estate Market Size & Share Analysis - Growth Trends And Forecast (2025 - 2030)

Thailand Real Estate Market Trends and Insights

Transit Expansion and Infrastructure Upgrades Boost Urban Property Demand

Public spending worth THB 2.68 trillion (USD 76.6 billion) on rail corridors, airports, and expressways is reshaping commuter belts and unlocking new development zones. The Orange Line MRT extension alone is expected to lift ridership to 400,000 trips per day by 2030, creating land-value uplift along its 35.9 km route. Provincial light-rail projects budgeted at THB 77 billion (USD 2.2 billion) in Phuket, Chiang Mai, Nakhon Ratchasima, and Phitsanulok will further distribute growth beyond the capital. The flagship Bangkok 2 smart city in Huai Yai—costing at THB 1.34 trillion (USD 38.3 billion)—is designed for 350,000 residents and 200,000 jobs, anchoring new demand across the Eastern seaboard. Daily volumes on Bangkok Expressway & Metro routes already top 1.1 million trips, underscoring investor confidence in transit-oriented assets^{[2]Office of Transport & Traffic Policy and Planning, “Thailand Transport Infrastructure Development Plan 2025-2026,” Ministry of Transport, otp.go.th}.

Government Incentives and Fee Cuts Stimulate Housing Market Activity

Temporary transfer-fee reductions, relaxed mortgage rules for first-home buyers, and targeted tax breaks have revived project launches, as evidenced by an 80% reservation rate at Central Pattana’s Escent Nakhon Sawan condo, priced from THB 1.95 million (USD 55,700). New visa categories, including a Destination Thailand Visa and longer tourist stays, extend the pool of foreign purchasers. Meanwhile, the Land and Building Tax framework nudges underused land toward productive development and funds local infrastructure. These levers collectively cushion softer domestic demand stemming from elevated household debt levels reported by the Bank of Thailand at 86.9% of GDP.

Growing Foreign Investment Supports Premium Property Segments

Foreign direct investment stocks equal roughly half of Thai GDP, propelled by Chinese and Middle-Eastern capital targeting hospitality and trophy mixed-use projects such as the proposed world’s tallest tower in Bangkok. A transparent condominium transfer process requiring inbound foreign currency receipts sustains international confidence. In 2024, Phuket welcomed over 14 million visitors, generating THB 200-300 billion (USD 5.7-8.6 billion) in tourism receipts, which boosts upscale residential and hotel demand.

E-Commerce Growth Drives Logistics Real Estate Transformation

The Eastern Economic Corridor (EEC) captured 60% of serviced industrial land deals in 1H 2024, with prices averaging THB 6.2 million per rai (USD 177,100). WHA Corporation reported record revenue of THB 17.015 billion (USD 486.1 million) backed by brisk land leases for fulfilment centres. Data-centre capacity is on track to surpass 400 MW by 2025 as STT GDC Thailand readies AI-enabled facilities. Factory upgrades in northern Thailand have cut inventory costs by 55%, underlining the ROI case for modern warehousing.

Weak Mid-Income Housing Demand Constrains Market Expansion

Elevated household leverage—above 86% of GDP—has led banks to tighten loan-to-value (LTV) ratios, particularly on second-home mortgages over THB 10 million (USD 286,000). Developers responded by curtailing new launches 65% year-on-year in 2024, concentrating on higher-margin segments and smaller unit counts. Private investment slid 0.9% in 1H 2024, with the residential sector bearing the brunt, prompting calls for further LTV easing and income-support measures.

Urban Condominium Oversupply Creates Absorption Challenges

Greater Bangkok ended 2024 with roughly 235,000 unsold condo units—its highest inventory since 2018—causing developers to stagger completions and offer longer payment plans. Sales dropped 37% to 53,000 units, and transfers are projected to fall another 50% in 2025 due to seismic-related safety concerns. Analysts forecast double-digit profit declines for listed residential builders absent a swift demand rebound.

Segment Analysis

By Property Type: Commercial Assets Outpace Although Residential Remains Dominant

Residential assets represented 51.3% of the Thailand real estate market in 2024 as suburban migration, first-home incentives, and mortgage relaxation maintained baseline demand. Yet commercial stock is heading for the fastest 6.11% CAGR to 2030, supported by data-centre construction, upgrade cycles in Grade-A offices, and a surge in lifestyle-driven mixed-use complexes. Central Pattana’s USD 131.4 million redevelopment of Central Bangna underscores sustained investment appetite in Bangkok retail nodes. Meanwhile, data-centre operator STT GDC is expanding capacity to more than 400 MW, a boost for power-dense real estate niches that depend on reliable grid connections.

The structural pivot toward commercial space aligns with Thailand’s push to become a regional supply-chain hub. WHA Corporation’s pipeline spans 12 domestic industrial estates serving e-commerce, EV, and semiconductor tenants. In hospitality, Asset World Corp achieved 24% year-on-year revenue growth in Q2 2024 and saw average daily rates hit USD 154, reflecting robust tourist inflows. Office performance diverges: CBD towers retain occupancy, while secondary assets negotiate discounted rents of USD 21 per square meter per month. Developers are also embedding ESG features to defend yields as utility tariffs rise.

Note: Segment shares of all individual segments available upon report purchase

By Business Model: Rentals Gain Momentum as Investors Seek Yield

Sales still command 69.9% of 2024 transaction value, but rentals are projected to expand at a 6.39% CAGR through 2030 as investors and REIT sponsors target predictable income streams. Central Pattana bundles malls, residences, and hotels into integrated precincts, capturing cross-tenant synergies that stabilize cash flow. The C.P. Tower Growth Leasehold Property Fund generated USD 36.9 million income in 2023, illustrating the viability of institutionalised rental products.

Pressure on buyer affordability, coupled with extended tourist visas and LTR schemes, channels demand toward leasing. Asset World Corp posted record leasing of 16,000 m² in a single quarter, while WHA’s industrial leasing backlog secures future revenue visibility. As the Bank of Thailand keeps policy rates elevated to tame inflation, yield-seeking global funds are expected to allocate more capital to local REITs, sustaining the rental model’s advance.

By End-User: Corporate and SME Demand Accelerates

Individual households contributed 53.1% of the 2024 value, yet corporate and SME occupiers are set to grow the fastest at a 6.25% CAGR to 2030. Multinationals favour Thailand for regional headquarters, leveraging EEC incentives that refunded duties for high-tech imports and offered 50-year land leases. The Bangkok 2 smart city is planned to host regional offices in fintech, precision medicine, and aerospace, signalling a shift toward knowledge-intensive tenants.

SMEs are re-configuring space needs toward flexible offices, co-warehousing, and last-mile depots. Central Pattana has responded by introducing multi-tenant co-working zones within large malls, and WHA offers modular factory shells that can be scaled. Government e-invoicing reforms and the digital wallet program also nudge smaller firms into formal leasing arrangements, enlarging the investable universe.

Note: Segment shares of all individual segments available upon report purchase

Geography Analysis

Bangkok dominated with 52.3% share in 2024 thanks to unmatched infrastructure, deep labour pools, and a steady pipeline of Grade-A office and luxury condo projects. Ongoing works such as the Orange Line MRT extension and the landmark USD 38.3 billion Bangkok 2 smart city will reinforce the capital’s connectivity to the EEC. Yet oversupply of 235,000 units and post-quake structural audits have injected caution into the near-term residential outlook, leading many developers to emphasise mixed-use towers over stand-alone condos.

Phuket is on course for a 7.01% CAGR to 2030, the fastest nationwide. Tourist arrivals exceeded 14 million in 2024 and are forecast to climb further as the island pivots to year-round visitor segments, Muslim-friendly marketing, and direct long-haul flights. A THB 35 billion (USD 1 billion) light-rail project will knit together the airport, Old Town, and key beaches, stimulating rings of new retail and hospitality developments^{[3]National Statistical Office, “Tourism Statistics Report 2024,” National Statistical Office of Thailand, nso.go.th}.

Secondary cities such as Pattaya and Chiang Mai benefit from decentralised rail investment worth THB 42 billion (USD 1.2 billion). Pattaya’s proximity to the EEC and the Huai Yai smart city has triggered early land banking, while Chiang Mai pursues education-driven and digital-nomad demand, aided by a planned THB 30 billion (USD 857 million) light-rail line. Across the “Rest of Thailand,” multi-modal hubs tied to agritech, renewable energy, and cross-border trade enlarge the opportunity set for developers willing to differentiate products by local demand drivers rather than replicate Bangkok-style high-rise formats.