Nigeria Power Market - Growth, Trends, COVID-19 Impact, and Forecast (2022 - 2027)

The Market is Segmented by Power Generation from Sources (Thermal, Renewable, and Other Power Generation Sources) and Transmission and Distribution (T&D)).

Market Snapshot

Nigeria power market share
Study Period: 2019-2027
Base Year: 2021
CAGR: <13 %
Nigeria power market major players

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Market Overview

The Nigerian power market is expected to register a CAGR of approximately 13% during the forecast period (2022-2027). The COVID-19 pandemic has positively impacted the distribution of electricity in Nigeria. For instance, in Lagos, Nigeria's largest city, 43% of total electricity demand comes from the residential sector. Under the lockdown scenario, there was a sharp increase in residential electricity demand by up to 49%, resulting in power distribution companies facing a shift in electricity demand and changes in energy load allocation. This factor called for more EPC or modification projects in the power infrastructure. The Nigerian power market is largely driven by favorable government policies and a growing inclination toward privatization of the power sector, which can draw more investment in the sector. However, the absence of proper infrastructure in the power sector, with a lack of skilled local labor, is expected to hinder the power market in the country.

  • Thermal power is expected to dominate the power generation market during the forecast period, as more than half of the country’s total power generation is based on natural gas.
  • The country has required natural resources like oil and gas reserves, which assure continuous fuel supply for the power generation sector. In the current scenario, the Nigerian government highly promotes foreign direct investments (FDI), which may create tremendous opportunities for the market. There is a great demand for electricity from many communities dwelling off-grid.
  • The Nigerian government is promoting renewable energy-based power generation in the country. As part of this, the Nigerian Electricity Regulatory Commission (NERC) is offering various grants to local companies for setting up renewable energy generation plants, which is expected to boost the power sector.

Scope of the Report

The scope of the Nigerian power market report includes:

Power Generation from Source
Thermal
Renewable
Other Power Generation Sources

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Key Market Trends

Thermal Power Is Expected to Dominate the Market

  • The country's thermal power generation share was 80% in 2021. It is also expected to have a significant share during the forecast period due to Nigeria’s continuous and reliable gas supply to power the gas-fired power plants.
  • In January 2021, the federal government planned to add six coal-based power generating plants to the existing ones by 2037. It also fabricated plans to add nine gas-fired power plants, making it a total of 15 power plants, expected to be operational by 2037.
  • In February 2020, the Nigerian National Petroleum Corporation and the United States Trade and Development Agency signed a USD 1.1 million deal to construct gas-based NNPC Abuja Independent Power Project. The 1350 MW plant is expected to be constructed by the EPC companies General Electric and CMEC (China Machinery Engineering Corporation). The gas supply will be provided by the proposed pipeline, Ajaokuta-Kaduna-Kano (AKK).
  • Due to such factors, the thermal power market is expected to boost the power generation sector during the forecast period.
Nigeria power market trends

Government Support for Renewables-Based Power Generation Is Expected to Drive the Market

· Nigeria's renewable power generation capacity was around 2,153 MW in 2020. The government is currently planning to introduce more programs to promote cleaner power generation sources to power the urban and rural areas of the country.

· The Renewable Energy Master Plan (REMP) promotes the deployment of renewable-based power generation systems in the country. As a part of this, in 2020, the Nigerian government launched the Naija Solar Power Project, which targeted around 5 million solar-based connections for off-grid communities.

· In April 2021, the same project was launched in the Jangefe Roni Local Government Area of Jigawa State. According to the government, these projects will likely be implemented in other areas like Edo, Lagos, Adamawa, Anambra, Kebbi, and Plateau in the first phase. The entire country will be covered in the next phase.

· The country aims to increase the supply of renewable electricity to meet the electricity demands of rural areas. The Renewable Energy Association of Nigeria (REAN) is encouraging investments in this sector.

· At the end of 2020, hydropower accounted for about 12.5% of its on-grid energy in Nigeria. Following the current trend, this sector will witness huge investments, which may boost the growth of the country’s renewable power generation.

· Due to such developments, renewable-based electricity generation is expected to become a major driver of the power sector in the country in the future.

Nigeria power market share

Competitive Landscape

The Nigerian power market is moderately consolidated. Some of the major power-generating companies include Afam Power PLC, Egbin Power PLC, and Toshiba Corporation. Some of the major transmission and distribution companies include Transmission Company of Nigeria and Abuja Electricity Distribution Company PLC.

Recent Developments

  • In November 2021, the Aba Gas-to-Power project received a USD 50 million term loan funding from African Import-Export Bank, Afreximbank. The Aba IPP will be Nigeria’s first integrated and independent power utility. The deal was signed with Geometric Power Aba Limited, the power station operator.
  • In June 2020, the World Bank approved USD 750 million for the Nigerian Power Sector. It was initiated as a Power Sector Recovery Operation (PSRO) loan for Nigeria, aiming to achieve financial sustainability, enhance accountability, and ensure a reliable supply of electricity to the grid by 2022.

Table of Contents

  1. 1. INTRODUCTION

    1. 1.1 Scope of the Study

    2. 1.2 Market Definition

    3. 1.3 Study Assumptions

  2. 2. EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

  3. 3. RESEARCH METHODOLOGY

  4. 4. MARKET OVERVIEW

    1. 4.1 Introduction

    2. 4.2 Nigeria Electricity Market Size and Demand Forecast in USD billion, Until 2027

    3. 4.3 Recent Trends and Developments

    4. 4.4 Government Policies and Regulations

    5. 4.5 Market Dynamics

      1. 4.5.1 Drivers

      2. 4.5.2 Restraints

    6. 4.6 Supply Chain Analysis

    7. 4.7 PESTLE Analysis

  5. 5. MARKET SEGMENTATION

    1. 5.1 Power Generation from Source

      1. 5.1.1 Thermal

      2. 5.1.2 Renewable

      3. 5.1.3 Other Power Generation Sources

    2. 5.2 Power Transmission and Distribution

  6. 6. COMPETITIVE LANDSCAPE

    1. 6.1 Mergers and Acquisitions, Joint Ventures, Collaborations, and Agreements

    2. 6.2 Strategies Adopted by Leading Players

    3. 6.3 Company Profiles

      1. 6.3.1 Egbin Power PLC

      2. 6.3.2 Transcorp Power Limited

      3. 6.3.3 Seplat Energy PLC

      4. 6.3.4 Abuja Electricity Distribution Company PLC

      5. 6.3.5 BEDC Electricity PLC

      6. 6.3.6 Yola Electricity Distribution Company (YEDC)

    4. *List Not Exhaustive
  7. 7. MARKET OPPORTUNITIES AND FUTURE TRENDS

**Subject to Availability

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Frequently Asked Questions

The Nigeria Power Market market is studied from 2019 - 2027.

The Nigeria Power Market is growing at a CAGR of <13% over the next 5 years.

Abuja Electricity Distribution Company PLC, Niger Delta Power Holding Company (NDPHC)​, Seplat Energy PLC, Egbin Power PLC, Transmission Company of Nigeria are the major companies operating in Nigeria Power Market.

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