Nigeria Power Market - Growth, Trends, and Forecast (2020 - 2025)

The market is segmented by Power Sector (Generation, and Transmission and Distribution (T&D))

Market Snapshot

Study Period:

2017-2024

Base Year:

2019

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Market Overview

The power market in Nigeria is expected to grow at a CAGR of approximately 12.39% during the forecast period of 2019 – 2024. Nigeria is the biggest economy in the African continent, with USD 397.27 billion GDP recorded in 2018. However, its power sector is performing below the level of its peer countries. Roughly 40% of the population has no access to electricity, and those connected to the grid suffer extensive power outages. To revive the power sector, the government, in partnership with the World Bank, initiated and signed a Power Sector Recovery Program (PSRP), in which funds are expected to flow in to support the sector. Moreover, increasing shift toward renewable energy technologies is expected strengthen the power market in the coming years. However, vandalism of gas infrastructure and statutory bottlenecks in the country are expected to hinder the growth of the industry.

  • Thermal electricity generation has dominated the country’s power sector by accounting for more than 75% of the electricity generated in 2018.  
  • Nigerian population and the country’s businesses spend around USD 14 billion (NGN 5 trillion) annually on small-scale generators that are expensive (USD 0.40/kWh or NGN 140/kWh or more), of poor quality, noisy, and pollution causing. Developing off-grid alternatives in order to complement the grid creates a USD 9.2 billion/year (NGN 3.2 trillion/year) market opportunity for mini-grids and solar home systems, which is expected to save USD 4.4 billion/year (NGN 1.5 trillion/year) for Nigerian homes and businesses.

Scope of the Report

The Nigeria power market report include:

Nigeria Electricity Generation Scenario
Key Energy Statistics of Nigeria
Power Generation Capacity (in GW) and Electricity Generation (in MWh)
Thermal
Hydropower
Non-hydropower Renewables
Consumption, By Sector
Power Generation Capacity, By Region
North Central
Northeast
Northwest
Southeast
South South
Southwest
System Collapses of the Nigerian Electric Power Grid
Analysis of Off-grid Technologies and Levelised Cost of Electricity (LCOE) of -
Solar
Diesel
Hybrid (Solar/Diesel)
Key Electricity Generation Projects
Existing Projects
Projects in Pipeline
Upcoming Projects
Key Players
Domestic
International
Nigeria Power Transmission and Distribution Netwrok
Market Overview
Power Transmission and Distribution Infrastructure
By Capacity
By Length
By Substation
Electric Power Transmission and Distribution Losses Data, and Forecast, till 2024
Key Players
Domestic
International
Key Projects
Projects in Pipeline
Upcoming Projects

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Key Market Trends

Thermal Power to Dominate the Power Generation Market in Nigeria

  • Nigerian power sector is dominated by thermal electricity generation, that too gas-fired, accounting for more than half of the total electricity generation in the country.  
  • The country has been supporting independent power producers (IPPs) through its initiatives which include reduced financial risks for investors through partial risk guarantee (PRG) agreement. The PRG agreement, backed by World Bank, protects the investors against a default by a power company. This agreement aims to encourage IPPs into the sector and mitigate the risks posed by gas shortages.  
  • In December 2017, the Nigerian National Petroleum Corp. (NNPC) announced the plan to build three natural gas-fired power plants in the country. Situated at Abuja, Kaduna, and Kano, the plants are expected to have a total capacity of 4,600 MW. Moreover, the country is building a coal-based power plant, with a capacity of 16 MW, which is anticipated to be completed by the end of 2019.  
  • Chinese consortium HTG-Pacific Energy has signed a Memorandum of Understanding (MoU), with the Nigerian Government for the exploitation and mining of the Ezinmo Coal Bricks. Nigerian authorities have announced that the MoU is expected to be followed by a Power Purchase Agreement (PPA), which is likely to authorize the investors to build a 1000 MW coal-fired power plant.
  • However, the absence of infrastructure in both power and mining sector coupled with lack of skilled local labors is expected to hinder the expansion of coal-fired power capacity in Nigeria.

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Competitive Landscape

The Nigeria power market is consolidated. Some of the major power generating companies include Afam Power Plc., Egbin Power Plc, and Toshiba Corporation, and some of the major transmission and distribution companies include Transmission Company of Nigeria, and Abuja Electricity Distribution Company PLC.

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Table Of Contents

  1. 1. INTRODUCTION

    1. 1.1 Scope of the Study

    2. 1.2 Market Definition

    3. 1.3 Study Assumptions

    4. 1.4 Study Deliverables

    5. 1.5 Research Phases

  2. 2. EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

  3. 3. RESEARCH METHODOLOGY

  4. 4. MARKET OVERVIEW

    1. 4.1 Introduction

    2. 4.2 Evolution of Electricity Generation Industry in Nigeria

    3. 4.3 Nigeria Electricity Market Size and Demand Forecast in USD billion, NGN billion & TWh, Until 2024

    4. 4.4 Recent Trends and Developments in the Nigerian Electricity Sector

    5. 4.5 Government Targets, Policies, and Regulations

    6. 4.6 Investment Opportunities

    7. 4.7 Market Dynamics

      1. 4.7.1 Drivers

      2. 4.7.2 Restraints

    8. 4.8 PESTLE Analysis

  5. 5. MARKET SEGMENTATION

    1. 5.1 Nigeria Electricity Generation Scenario

      1. 5.1.1 Key Energy Statistics of Nigeria

        1. 5.1.1.1 Power Generation Capacity (in GW) and Electricity Generation (in MWh)

          1. 5.1.1.1.1 Thermal

          2. 5.1.1.1.2 Hydropower

          3. 5.1.1.1.3 Non-hydropower Renewables

        2. 5.1.1.2 Consumption, By Sector

        3. 5.1.1.3 Power Generation Capacity, By Region

          1. 5.1.1.3.1 North Central

          2. 5.1.1.3.2 Northeast

          3. 5.1.1.3.3 Northwest

          4. 5.1.1.3.4 Southeast

          5. 5.1.1.3.5 South South

          6. 5.1.1.3.6 Southwest

      2. 5.1.2 System Collapses of the Nigerian Electric Power Grid

      3. 5.1.3 Analysis of Off-grid Technologies and Levelised Cost of Electricity (LCOE) of -

        1. 5.1.3.1 Solar

        2. 5.1.3.2 Diesel

        3. 5.1.3.3 Hybrid (Solar/Diesel)

      4. 5.1.4 Key Electricity Generation Projects

        1. 5.1.4.1 Existing Projects

        2. 5.1.4.2 Projects in Pipeline

        3. 5.1.4.3 Upcoming Projects

      5. 5.1.5 Key Players

        1. 5.1.5.1 Domestic

        2. 5.1.5.2 International

    2. 5.2 Nigeria Power Transmission and Distribution Netwrok

      1. 5.2.1 Market Overview

      2. 5.2.2 Power Transmission and Distribution Infrastructure

        1. 5.2.2.1 By Capacity

        2. 5.2.2.2 By Length

        3. 5.2.2.3 By Substation

      3. 5.2.3 Electric Power Transmission and Distribution Losses Data, and Forecast, till 2024

      4. 5.2.4 Key Players

        1. 5.2.4.1 Domestic

        2. 5.2.4.2 International

      5. 5.2.5 Key Projects

        1. 5.2.5.1 Projects in Pipeline

        2. 5.2.5.2 Upcoming Projects

  6. 6. COMPETITIVE LANDSCAPE

    1. 6.1 Mergers and Acquisitions, Joint Ventures, Collaborations, and Agreements

    2. 6.2 Key Company Profiles

      1. 6.2.1 Power Generating Companies

        1. 6.2.1.1 Egbin Power Plc

        2. 6.2.1.2 Afam Power Plc

      2. 6.2.2 Transmission and Distribution Companies

        1. 6.2.2.1 Transmission Company of Nigeria

        2. 6.2.2.2 Abuja Electricity Distribution Company PLC

        3. 6.2.2.3 Benin Electricity Distribution Company PLC

  7. *List Not Exhaustive
  8. 7. MARKET OPPORTUNITIES AND FUTURE TRENDS

** Subject to Availability

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