Solar Photovoltaic Market Size & Share Analysis - Growth Trends & Forecasts (2025 - 2030)

Global Solar Photovoltaic (PV) Market Trends and Insights

Falling Module ASPs Widen Grid-Parity Zones

Module prices fell 51.8% year-over-year in 2024, pushing several Chinese producers below break-even and prompting supply reductions that stabilize the trajectory of further declines. Grid parity is now achieved in 70% of global electricity markets, unlocking solar photovoltaic market penetration in regions once considered uneconomic. Saudi Arabia recorded a levelized cost of electricity of USD 10.4/MWh, illustrating cost leadership under strong irradiance.^{[1]Rystad Energy Analysts, “Solar Costs Hit Record Low in the Gulf,” Rystad Energy, rystadenergy.com} Sub-Saharan Africa stands to gain as cost reductions converge with rising mini-grid demand. Trade actions and localized content rules may introduce regional price spreads, yet global median prices trend lower through 2026 as efficiencies climb.

IRA-Driven On-Shoring of PV Manufacturing in the US

Announced commitments exceeding USD 100 billion will quadruple US cell and module output and realign global supply networks. Hanwha Qcells is building an integrated ingot-to-module complex, and First Solar’s new thin-film line in Alabama boosts domestic capacity to 11 GW. Domestic content bonuses shave 10-20% from project costs, neutralizing historic Asian cost advantages. The initiative mitigates geopolitical risk but hinges on sustained policy continuity and incremental scale-driven learning curves.

AI-Enabled Solar Forecasting Cuts Balancing Costs

Machine-learning models deliver 89% irradiance-forecast accuracy, allowing grid operators to trim balancing reserves by 15-25% and accommodate higher variable output without additional storage.^{[2]U.S. Energy Information Administration, “California Curtailments Annual Update 2024,” U.S. Department of Energy, eia.gov} CAISO avoided 274,000 MWh of curtailments in 2024 by deploying such tools. Beyond dispatch gains, generative AI supports predictive maintenance that can lift plant uptime and lower O&M expense by 10-15%. Deployment in emerging markets lags due to data-infrastructure gaps, suggesting a staged global rollout.

Demand from Green-Hydrogen Electrolyzer Projects

Electrolyzer schemes generally require 4–6 MW of dedicated solar per MW of hydrogen capacity, linking gigawatt-scale solar aspirations to industrial decarbonization agendas. Oman’s 450 MW solar plant for green ammonia epitomizes this synergy.^{[3]FuelCellsWorks Editors, “Oman Green Ammonia Project,” FuelCellsWorks, fuelcellsworks.com} Only 7% of the global project pipeline met schedule milestones in 2024, underscoring execution risks. Nonetheless, premium offtake contracts and emerging carbon-pricing regimes enhance project viability, signposting a sizeable future load for the solar photovoltaic market once reforms accelerate.

Grid Congestion and Curtailment in High-Penetration Regions

California curtailed 3.4 million MWh in 2024, a 29% jump that spotlights the mismatch between generation growth and transmission expansion. Texas could see solar curtailment rates rise to 19% by 2035 without major grid upgrades. Europe’s redispatch volumes may increase sixfold by 2040, costing operators and consumers alike. Regional coordination frameworks—such as the Western Energy Imbalance Market—demonstrate curtailment-reduction potential, yet typical lead times of seven to ten years for new lines keep the constraint front-of-mind for investors.

Rapid Polysilicon Price Swings Squeeze Producer Margins

A 51.8% price collapse in 2024 squeezed high-cost furnaces out of the market and triggered supply rationalization.^{[4]Gavin Maguire, “Polysilicon Market Volatility,” Reuters, reuters.com} Although downstream buyers benefited, thin producer margins elevate default risk, threatening orderly supply. Forward-contracting and diversified sourcing partially mitigate exposure, but low-cost leaders continue to dictate pricing, creating periodic turbulence.

Segment Analysis

By Technology: Monocrystalline Dominance Faces Efficiency Disruption

Monocrystalline-Si modules supplied 87% of 2024 capacity and delivered system-level learning-curve gains that reinforce their cost leadership. This technology sits at the heart of the solar photovoltaic market size for the technology segment, which is projected to grow at a 19.05% CAGR to 2030. TOPCon cells captured 70% of new production lines because they raise efficiency without large capital retooling. Thin-film solutions like CdTe and CIGS retain niches in space-constrained or high-temperature applications. Tandem and perovskite architectures, with LONGi’s 30.1% lab-scale efficiency and Qcells’ 28.6% module milestone, attract venture funding that accelerates pilot lines and pushes theoretical yield ceilings higher. Heterojunction offers high open-circuit voltages but encounters metallization cost hurdles, while back-contact cells target aesthetics for building-integrated photovoltaics. Technology competition thus pivots on efficiency advancements, material availability, and production scalability—factors that collectively steer procurement decisions across the solar photovoltaic market.

Continued R&D ensures performance gains translate to lower balance-of-system costs, reinforcing monocrystalline leadership in the near term. Yet every 1 percentage-point efficiency jump trims active area by roughly 2%, a saving critical in urban or agrivoltaic settings. Investment momentum behind tandem cells indicates disruption potential, and first commercial shipments are plausible before 2027. The eventual diffusion pace will hinge on durability proofs and capex intensity. Until then, incremental upgrades—such as metallization pastes with higher silver fraction efficiency or bifacial enhancements—keep current lines competitive.

Note: Segment shares of all individual segments available upon report purchase

By End-User: Utility-Scale Leadership Challenged by Residential Acceleration

Utility-scale arrays delivered 63% of 2024 installations and benefit from superior land utilization, project finance structures, and grid-service provision. Corporate 24/7 clean-power contracts add predictable offtake that derisks large plants, giving hyperscalers significant influence over the solar photovoltaic market. Residential uptake, however, is growing at a 22% CAGR, driven by improved loan products and supportive net-metering frameworks. The residential segment accounted for 21% of the solar photovoltaic market size in 2024 and gains share steadily as digital platforms slash customer-acquisition costs and as energy-independence narratives resonate with homeowners.

Commercial and industrial rooftops occupy the middle ground, bundling tax advantages with lease financing. Rising interest rates moderated residential demand in late 2024, yet securitization of loan portfolios stabilizes lender appetite. Utility portfolios continue to integrate storage to match 24/7 commitments, while community-solar programs extend access to renters and low-income subscribers. Diverse end-user dynamics collectively sustain broad-based growth across the solar photovoltaic market.

By Deployment Type: Ground-Mounted Supremacy Meets Floating Innovation

Ground-mounted systems captured 76% of the 2024 deployment and remain the backbone of large-scale generation. High-throughput pile-driving, string inverters, and automated cleaning maintain CapEx advantages. Floating PV, though accounting for a single-digit share, is expanding at 30% CAGR as reservoirs, mining pits, and hydropower dams unlock idle water surfaces. Comparative studies show energy yields exceed land-based counterparts by up to 15% due to evaporative cooling. JinkoSolar’s proposed 1,440 MWh floating solar-plus-storage project underscores the scale potential. Rooftop and building-integrated arrays absorb rising demand where land is scarce, and vertical installations offer fire-safety and snow-shedding benefits.

Agrivoltaics bridges energy and agriculture, occupying 62,000 US acres and delivering 10 GW by 2024. Policy frameworks that link agricultural productivity metrics to permit approval influence project cadence but also assure co-benefit credibility. Ground-mounted dominance will persist, yet floating and agrivoltaic models open fresh addressable markets, ensuring the solar photovoltaic market keeps evolving.

Note: Segment shares of all individual segments available upon report purchase

Geography Analysis

Asia-Pacific contributed 64% of global installations in 2024, driven by China’s integrated supply chain and sustained policy support. Domestic Chinese additions, plus exports into Southeast Asian assembly hubs, kept the global module supply abundant. India’s production-linked incentive program draws gigawatt-scale fabs as firms hedge against US and EU trade barriers. Japan pilots floating PV arrays atop irrigation ponds, while Australia intensifies rooftop adoption, boosting distributed capacity. These developments anchor Asia-Pacific’s role as the historical and ongoing nucleus of the solar photovoltaic market.

The Middle East and Africa region is growing at a 22% CAGR through 2030, propelled by Vision 2030 frameworks and green-hydrogen strategies. Saudi Arabia’s 58 GW target, the UAE’s 14 GW ambition, and Omani green-ammonia projects illustrate the shift from pilot programs to gigawatt build-outs. Africa exceeded 16 GW cumulative capacity in 2023; investment pipelines exceed 100 GW for 2030, contingent on concessional finance. Local module-assembly lines and bilateral power-purchase contracts with mining firms mitigate currency-risk exposure and strengthen bankability.

North America leverages IRA incentives to restore domestic production and attract downstream investment. Corporate procurement remains the region’s prime demand driver, with hyperscaler data-center growth elevating baseload renewable requirements. Europe intensifies focus on energy security and de-risking Chinese dependency; coordinated tenders accelerate rooftop adoption and hybrid plants that blend storage with PV. South America capitalizes on stellar irradiation; Chile’s Atacama Desert records capacity factors above 30%, enabling record-low tariffs. Across regions, policymaking, resource endowments, and financing ecosystems collectively sculpt uptake trajectories in the solar photovoltaic market.