Market Trends of Power Industry
Thermal Source for Power Generation to be the Largest Market
- Power generation uses a variety of sources ranging from fossil fuels like coal and oil to renewable sources like wind and solar. The energy mix for electricity generation is dominated by fossil fuels like coal, oil, and natural gas, with the three constituting almost 65% of the global energy mix.
- The power generation mix is heavily skewed toward coal, with a major contribution, because of cheaper domestic fuel availability. Its share in the mix has increased over the years due to constraints in adding other conventional generation sources-hydro, nuclear, and gas.
- Coal thermal power plants are the most widely used thermal power plant and are expected to have the largest share in the electricity power (global) supply, in 2025, in the world. More efficient technologies like Ultra Supercritical Coal Technology, which reduces pollution (per KW), are likely to replace aging power plants.
- As per Energy Institute Statistical Review of World Energy 2023, in 2022, a coal-based thermal power plant holds the largest share in total global power generation. Globally, the amount of power generated from coal remained the dominant fuel for power generation in 2022, with its share increasing to 35.37%, up from 35.1% in 2020. In 2022, coal-based power generation had reached 10317.2 TWh.
- In March 2022, Comisión Federal de Electricidad (CFE), the state-owned electric utility of Mexico, issued direct awards on five projects expected to add 2.26 GW of gas-based power generation capacity. Wartsila was awarded contracts to build two internal combustion engine power plants: the 429 MW CCI Mexicali Oriente plant in Baja California, and the 202 MW CCI Parque Industrial in Sonora. The other three are combined cycle plants: CCC San Luis Potosí (442MW) in CCC San Luis Potosí and the 932MW CCC Salamanca plant in Guanajuato, both awarded to Mitsubishi Power; and finally, CCC El Sauz ll (256MW) in Querétaro, with the contract going to TSK and Siemens Energy.
- In September 2022, Germany re-started a coal-fired reserve power plant, The Heyden plant in Petershagen, near Hanover in northern Germany, With a capacity of 875 megawatts, Heyden is one of the most powerful coal-fired power plants in Germany.
- Germany plans to phase out coal-fired power generation by 2038 at the latest. However, the war in Ukraine and the resulting disruptions to the energy market are causing some plants to be temporarily reactivated.Therefore, based on the factors mentioned above, the thermal source for power generation is expected to be the largest segment of the Power Market during the forecast period.
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Asia-Pacific to Dominate the Market
- Asia-Pacific is home to more than 50% of the global population and 60% of the large cities, and in the future, the continent will face increasing demand for power as millions of new customers are gaining access to electricity, with rapid population growth and industrialization. For instance, according to the Energy Institute Statistical Review of World Energy 2023, the primary energy consumption in the region increased from 220,48 exajoules in 2013 to 277.60 exajoules in 2022.
- Many countries in Asia-Pacific have inadequate transmission and distribution (T&D) networks, and hence, electricity is not available in some of the remote and rural areas. To bring electricity to these areas, the countries in the region are investing heavily in building a transmission line network.
- China dominates the power market in the region, and the energy sector is moving in a new direction by transitioning toward cleaner and sustainable energy sources to reduce carbon emissions and achieve net zero carbon emissions by 2060.
- Furthermore, as of 2022, China has the most significant renewable installed capacity globally. According to China's National Energy Administration, the country's renewable installed capacity reached 1,213 GW by the end of 2022, accounting for about 47.3% of the total installed generation capacity.
- For instance, in 2022, the government of China announced that it plans to build 450 gigawatts of solar and wind energy power plants in the Gobi desert regions to achieve the renewable energy target by 2030.
- According to the International Energy Agency (IEA), India is the third largest energy-consuming country globally, owing to the rising income levels and improving standards of living, which directly aids the power market in the nation. Over the coming years, millions of Indian households will buy new appliances and air-conditioners, and to support the growth, the nation will have to add a large amount of power systems in the forecast period.
- In addition, the Government of India is investing heavily in renewable energy to reduce carbon emissions and undertaking various large-scale sustainable power projects, and promoting green energy heavily. As of February 2023, India's installed renewable energy capacity stood at 168.96 GW, and the country is targeting about 450 Gigawatt (GW) of installed renewable energy capacity by 2030, which will directly aid the market.
- For instance, in 2022, National Thermal Power Corporation (NTPC) and Bharat Heavy Electricals (BHEL) commissioned the largest floating solar power plant in India with a capacity of 100 MW in the state of Telangana, which will reduce the carbon dioxide emission by 2,10,000 tonnes per year.
- Therefore, based on the factors like expansions and upgrades, especially in the Asia-Pacific region, along with increased power demand, is expected to have a positive impact on the power market.
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