Commercial Aircraft Leasing Market Size & Share Analysis – Growth Trends And Forecast (2025 - 2030)

Global Commercial Aircraft Leasing Market Trends and Insights

Rapid low-cost-carrier expansion increases leasing penetration

Low-cost carriers rely on leasing to conserve cash and scale quickly, driving a structural preference that supports the commercial aircraft leasing market. IndiGo’s agreement with BOC Aviation for four A320neo jets and Southwest Airlines’ 2025 sale-and-leaseback with BBAM exemplify how carriers secure lift without large upfront capital outlays.^{[1]BOC Aviation, “Order for 70 A320neo Family Aircraft,” bocaviation.com} Leasing also allows LCCs to recalibrate fleets in response to volatile demand, a key advantage during traffic shocks. Rising middle-class disposable incomes in India, Southeast Asia, and sub-Saharan Africa underpin a route-expansion cycle that will keep the LCC segment growing at an 8.78% CAGR through 2030, reinforcing demand for narrowbody lift and supporting lessor bargaining power.

OEM production bottlenecks elevate lessor pricing power

Quality-control issues and supply-chain disruptions have trimmed Airbus and Boeing output, leaving airlines with delivery shortfalls and pushing lease-rate factors higher. SMBC Aviation Capital reports 7-12% lease-rate growth for new wide-bodies since late 2023, while average lease terms have climbed to 12 years, locking in cash-flow visibility for lessors. Secondary-market valuations are firm because carriers choose to keep older aircraft longer rather than risk capacity gaps. The bottlenecks are unlikely to ease before 2028, underscoring a multi-year tailwind for lease pricing.

P2F conversions unlock a secondary growth engine

E-commerce parcel volumes call for additional freighters, yet new-build slots remain scarce. Converting an ageing B737-800 into a freighter costs roughly USD 25 million—far below the USD 150-200 million price for a new wide-body freighter, creating a compelling arbitrage for lessors. AerCap’s lease of four B737-800BCFs to JD Airlines highlights the strategy, while Boeing projects conversions will supply more than 50% of the world freighter fleet by 2043.^{[2]Boeing, “Commercial Market Outlook 2024,” boeing.com} P2F activity extends asset life by up to 20 years and diversifies lessor revenue streams across passenger and cargo cycles.

Decarbonization roadmaps accelerate fleet renewal

IATA’s Net-Zero 2050 pathway and rising sustainable aviation-fuel mandates are pushing airlines toward new-technology aircraft with 15-25% lower fuel burn. AerCap has invested USD 50 billion in these models since 2014, and its fleet is now 70% new-technology, cutting per-seat emissions materially.^{[3]AerCap, “ESG Report 2024,” aercap.com} Operating leases give carriers flexibility to rotate into progressively greener models without burdening balance sheets with stranded assets. Sustainability-linked financing further rewards airlines that meet emissions targets with lower borrowing costs.

Interest-rate volatility erodes yield spreads

Federal Reserve tightening lifted lessor funding costs during 2024, and OEM price hikes outpaced lease-rate growth in certain segments. Air Lease Corporation’s net income slipped to USD 372 million in 2024 even as revenues climbed, illustrating the squeeze. Debt-heavy lessors face the sharpest margin pressure, though constrained aircraft supply partly offsets the impact.

Geopolitical sanctions complicate asset recovery

Over 400 Western-owned aircraft remain stranded in Russia, with outstanding claims topping USD 8 billion. Although London’s High Court sided with lessors in 2025, litigation timelines of two-plus years reveal enforcement difficulties. Lessors now model heightened exposure caps for high-risk jurisdictions and rely on Cape Town protections to shorten repossession timelines where possible.

Segment Analysis

By Leasing Type: Dry-lease dominance amid wet-lease upswing

Dry leases held 84.34% of the commercial aircraft leasing market in 2024 as airlines prioritized cockpit-and-cabin standardization, training synergies, and cost control. This dominance translates into USD 153.2 million of the commercial aircraft leasing market size, giving lessors predictable long-run cash flows. The wet-lease niche—comprising ACMI agreements—expands at 8.57% CAGR because carriers need seasonal capacity and contingency lift during maintenance peaks or pilot shortages. Norse Atlantic’s decision to return three B787-8s while retaining B787-9s shows how airlines recalibrate portfolios for optimum gauge and trip economics. Wet-lease providers are increasingly important during peak summer schedules in Europe and West Asia, enabling network carriers to plug capacity gaps without fresh capital outlays.

Over the forecast period, wet-lease operators will keep leveraging ACMI flexibility. Still, dry leasing will remain the bedrock of the commercial aircraft leasing market because it meets airline cost-efficiency targets and lessor asset-management preferences.

Note: Segment shares of all individual segments available upon report purchase

By Aircraft Type: Narrowbody leadership with cargo momentum

Narrowbodies represented 61.89% of total leased units in 2024, equivalent to USD 112.6 million of the commercial aircraft leasing market size, reflecting their unmatched economics on high-frequency routes. A321neo and B737 MAX deliveries drive fleet renewal, while strong residual liquidity makes them the least risky assets for lessors’ balance sheets. However, freighters and P2F aircraft are the fastest climbers at 9.51% CAGR as express-parcel operators rush to capture cross-border e-commerce flows. AviLease joined the segment with A350F orders during 2025, signalling that wide-body freighters will anchor growth for Middle-East hubs. Wide-body passenger aircraft face muted near-term output, yet premium long-haul demand supports lease-rate endurance. Regional jets serve point-to-point connectivity in Brazil, India, and the US, but their share remains below 5% of the commercial aircraft leasing market.

Boeing projects 2,800 additional freighters by 2043, with more than half coming from P2F conversions, executing a virtuous cycle of asset-life extension and residual-value uplift. Lessors that can secure early conversion slots will lock in attractive yields and diversify income away from cyclical passenger demand.

By End User: Network-carrier scale meets LCC velocity

Full-service carriers (FSCs) accounted for 52.46% of 2024 demand, translating into USD 95.4 million of the commercial aircraft leasing market size. FSCs continue to rely on operating leasing for fleet harmonization and balance-sheet relief, even while maintaining premium cabins and complex hub-and-spoke operations. The LCC cohort, however, is racing ahead at an 8.78% CAGR, spearheaded by massive orders such as Cebu Pacific’s 152-unit A321neo commitment. The commercial aircraft leasing industry thereby aligns its portfolio growth with the ascendancy of LCCs in Asia, South America, and select African corridors. Dedicated cargo airlines and ACMI specialists fill logistic white spaces left by integrators, especially for cross-border e-commerce flows that require bespoke hub strategies.

Network carriers also experiment with hybrid models, creating “value” subsidiaries that use dense single-class cabins. Leasing allows them to ring-fence aircraft in separate entities, shielding premium brands from low-fare dilution while tapping fast-growing middle-class traffic.

Note: Segment shares of all individual segments available upon report purchase

By Lease Duration: Medium-term preference, short-term agility

Medium-term contracts captured 45.75% of 2024 transactions because they balance cost advantages against the need to incorporate new-technology aircraft in under a decade. Short-term contracts, while only 18% of volume, are the fastest riser at 7.94% CAGR as airlines value agility during demand swing-outs. Long-term leases above twelve years historically delivered the lowest dollar-per-month rates; however, extended OEM delays now make such tenors more acceptable. United Airlines’ 12-year A321neo leases underline how scarcity reshapes tenor tolerance.

During the forecast window, high interest-rate volatility will keep airlines favouring medium-term structures to refinance when capital costs fall. Lessors, for their part, like the balanced risk-return profile: medium-term contracts capture a strong portion of an aircraft’s cash-generating life but allow remarketing before heavy-maintenance milestones.

Geography Analysis

Asia-Pacific held 35.50% of global revenue during 2024 as rapid traffic expansion, averaging 4.8% annually, and an order pipeline of 19,500 aircraft through 2043 reinforced fleet-growth needs. Leasing penetration already approaches 60% of the active fleet, well above the global average, demonstrating the centrality of the commercial aircraft leasing market to regional airline strategies. China’s CDB Aviation order for 80 A320neo jets and India’s Aircraft Objects Bill 2025, which aligns domestic repossession law with Cape Town provisions, strengthen the region’s attractiveness for foreign capital.

The Middle East and Africa region is the fastest-growing, posting a 9.80% CAGR through 2030. Saudi-owned AviLease placed its first Boeing order for 30 B737-8 jets and signed for A350F freighters in 2025, supporting the Kingdom’s Vision 2030 strategy. Africa’s fleet is set to double, and its freighter count will triple, opening a major frontier for lessors specializing in narrowbody cargo conversions.

North America and Europe remain mature yet innovative. Lessors based in Dublin, London, New York, and Los Angeles continue to anchor global funding. Sustainability-linked loans and green bonds originated in these regions and drive environmental transparency throughout the commercial aircraft leasing market. Consolidation, such as Dubai Aerospace Enterprise’s acquisition of Nordic Aviation Capital, indicates that economies of scale and funding access remain decisive.