Oseltamivir Market Size

Oseltamivir Market Analysis

The oseltamivir market is expected to register a CAGR of 3.2% over the forecast period.

COVID-19 has significantly impacted the oseltamivir market. Most COVID-19 patients who were symptomatic during the ongoing coronavirus illness have used oseltamivir. For instance, as per the article published in the Annals of Medical surgery in May 2022, it has been observed that the administration of oseltamivir in COVID-19 patients resulted in a shorter length of hospital stay, earlier recovery and discharge from hospitals and a lower mortality rate. In addition, as per the same source, a lower incidence of ICU hospitalization and mechanical ventilation within the first hours of admission was observed in patients administered with oseltamivir in combination therapy. However, flu activity was unusually low throughout the 2020-2021 flu season, both in the United States and globally, despite high levels of testing. From September 2020 to May 2021 in the United States, only 0.2% of 818,939 respiratory specimens tested by U.S. clinical laboratories were positive for an influenza virus. This decline was largely due to the COVID-19 mitigation measures such as wearing face masks, staying home, hand washing, school closures, reduced travel, increased ventilation of indoor spaces, and physical distancing that contributed to the decline in 2020-2021 flu incidence, hospitalizations, and deaths. Hence, the pandemic has impacted the market during peak times. However, the market started to recover as COVID-19 cases started to decline, along with the removal of mitigation measures.

The factors that primarily drive the market are the increasing prevalence of influenza virus infection. Influenza is recognized as a significant cause of morbidity and mortality in humans, prompting the development and implementation of treatment to reduce health and economic burden. For instance, per the data published by CDC, from early October 2021 through mid-June 2022, influenza virus infection resulted in 8-13 million symptomatic illnesses, 3.7-6.1 million medical visits, 82,000-170,000 hospitalizations, and 5,000-14,000 deaths. Clinical laboratories tested more than 2.8 million respiratory specimens for the influenza virus. Overall, 4.5% of specimens tested positive, including 98.6% for influenza A and 1.4% for influenza B. Each week, between 0.1% and 9.9% of the specimens tested positive for influenza.

Furthermore, as per the WHO data published in February 2021, WHO GISRS laboratories tested over 490,516 specimens during 2021-2022, among which 12,368 individuals tested positive for flu, with 8,423 for influenza A and 3,945 for influenza B. Thus, the significant burden of influenza infection among the population is expected to increase the demand for the oseltamivir drug for its treatment, thereby propelling the market growth.

Besides, the introduction of the products is expected to further propel the growth of the market. For instance, in February 2023, Zhongchao Inc. announced that Chongqing Xinjiang Pharmaceutical Co., Ltd. obtained the general distribution rights in Mainland China for the anti-influenza drug from Natco Pharma Limited ("Natco"). The first batch of cargo has arrived at the port in Chongqing City, and the drug will be introduced to the market for domestic treatment and prevention of Type A and Type B influenza viruses after the inspection and quarantine. The anti-influenza drug introduced by Xinjiang Pharmaceutical is Naiditawei, commonly known as Oseltamivir Phosphate Capsules.

However, the side effects associated with oseltamivir treatment are likely to impede the market growth over the forecast period.