South Africa Solar Photovoltaic (PV) Market Size & Share Analysis - Growth Trends & Forecasts (2025 - 2030)

South Africa Solar Photovoltaic (PV) Market Analysis

The South Africa Solar Photovoltaic Market size is estimated at 6.73 gigawatt in 2025, and is expected to reach 11.42 gigawatt by 2030, at a CAGR of 11.17% during the forecast period (2025-2030).

South Africa's energy landscape is undergoing a significant transformation as the country grapples with its heavy reliance on coal-based power generation. According to the Energy Information Administration (EIA), approximately 84.3% of electricity in South Africa was generated through coal in 2021, highlighting the urgent need for diversification of energy sources. The national power utility, Eskom, has been facing significant challenges in maintaining a reliable power supply, leading to widespread power disruptions. The deteriorating electricity infrastructure has resulted in unprecedented levels of planned power cuts, with the country experiencing 1,130 hours of scheduled outages in 2021, the highest in the past decade. This situation has catalyzed the adoption of alternative energy solutions, particularly solar photovoltaic systems.

The commercial and industrial sectors are emerging as key drivers of solar PV adoption, with metropolitan municipalities possessing a rooftop installation potential exceeding 11 GW for these sectors alone. Major corporations are increasingly investing in solar energy solutions to ensure energy security and reduce operational costs. For instance, in March 2022, Amazon.com Inc. commissioned a 10 MW ground-mounted solar power plant in the Northern Cape province, demonstrating the growing corporate commitment to renewable energy. Additionally, Africa's largest solar rooftop plant was commissioned on Cornubia Mall in March 2022, with a capacity of 5.25 MW and consisting of approximately 9,505 solar panels.

The government's commitment to renewable energy development is evident through various initiatives and policy frameworks. In April 2022, the South African government launched the sixth round of the Renewable Energy Independent Power Producer Procurement Program (REIPPPP), targeting the procurement of 2.6 GW of solar and wind power. This program is part of the country's broader plan to tender almost 12 GW of solar capacity, including both large-scale and distributed PV capacity. In June 2022, Scatec was awarded preferred bidder status on three projects totaling 150 MW of contracted capacity under the Risk Mitigation Power Procurement Program (RMIPPPP).

The market is witnessing significant technological advancements and innovations in solar PV systems. According to the South Africa Photovoltaic Industry Association (SAPVIA), the country had over 4 GW of solar energy connected to its grid as of 2021, with expectations of substantial growth in the coming years. The industry is experiencing a shift towards more efficient and cost-effective solutions, with manufacturers focusing on developing high-performance modules with improved efficiency ratings. The integration of energy storage solutions and smart grid technologies is becoming increasingly prevalent, enabling better management of solar generation and distribution across the network.

South Africa Solar Photovoltaic (PV) Market Trends

Supportive Government Policies and Initiatives

The South African government has implemented several strategic policies and programs to accelerate the adoption of solar technology across the country. A significant development was the introduction of a new rebate scheme in February 2023, allowing customers to claim rebates equivalent to 25% of the cost of solar panels installed on their homes. This initiative, which ran from March 1, 2023, to February 29, 2024, demonstrates the government's commitment to making solar electricity more accessible to residential consumers. Additionally, the Department of Mineral Resources and Energy has been strengthening its National Electrification Programme to expand electricity access throughout the country, creating favorable conditions for solar PV adoption.

The Renewable Energy Independent Power Producer Procurement Programme (REIPPPP) continues to be a cornerstone of South Africa's renewable energy strategy. In April 2022, the government launched the sixth round of REIPPPP, targeting the procurement of 2.6 GW of renewable energy, including 1.6 GW of solar PV. The government's ambitious plan aims to develop up to 6 GW of new large-scale solar and 6 GW of distributed PV capacity by 2030, as outlined in the country's Integrated Resource Plan (IRP). These initiatives are complemented by programs such as the National Solar Water Heater Programme, which specifically supports the residential sector's transition to solar energy solutions.

Rising Electricity Demand and Power Crisis

South Africa's escalating electricity demand, particularly in the residential sector, has become a significant driver for residential solar adoption. According to the US Energy Information Administration (US EIA), the residential sector is projected to consume approximately 8.4 Mtoe (million tonnes of oil equivalent) or 98,000 GWh of electricity by 2040. This substantial increase in demand is attributed to rising personal incomes, continued urban migration in southern regions of Africa, and significant investments in the housing sector driven by population growth and rapid urbanization.

The country's unstable power grid has further accelerated the transition to solar energy solutions. This is evidenced by recent industry developments, such as Hohm Energy securing USD 8 million in seed investment in February 2024 specifically for developing residential solar rooftops. The market has also attracted major industry players, as demonstrated by Sungrow's strategic agreements with ARB and Herholdt in May 2024 to provide comprehensive solar system solutions for residential and commercial solar applications. These developments reflect the growing recognition of solar PV as a reliable alternative to conventional power sources in addressing the country's electricity crisis.

Abundant Solar Resources and Declining Technology Costs

South Africa possesses exceptional solar energy potential, with an average of more than 2,500 hours of sunshine annually and solar irradiation levels ranging between 4.5 and 6.5 kWh/m² daily. These favorable natural conditions make the country particularly well-suited for solar PV deployment, especially in regions like the Northern Cape, which is recognized as one of the world's most attractive solar resource areas. The abundant solar resources, combined with the country's geographical advantages, provide a strong foundation for the sustainable growth of the solar PV market.

The declining costs of solar equipment have made it increasingly competitive with conventional power sources, driving wider adoption across various sectors. This trend is particularly evident in the residential and commercial segments, where the combination of falling equipment costs and rising conventional electricity tariffs has improved the economic viability of solar installations. The market's maturation is further demonstrated by recent industry developments, such as Sungrow's commitment to providing diverse product offerings comprising inverter and solar storage solutions, indicating the growing sophistication and cost-effectiveness of solar technology in the South African market.

Segment Analysis: By Type

Crystalline Silicon Segment in South Africa Solar PV Market

The crystalline silicon segment dominates the South African solar photovoltaic market, commanding approximately 92% market share in 2024. This dominance is attributed to crystalline silicon's superior efficiency and reliability compared to other technologies. The segment includes both monocrystalline and polycrystalline variants, with monocrystalline solar panels gaining increased adoption due to their higher efficiency ratings of up to 22%. The segment's growth is driven by major technological advancements, particularly in PERC (Passivated Emitter and Rear Cell) technology, which has significantly improved power output and overall system performance. Leading manufacturers like Canadian Solar and JinkoSolar have been instrumental in driving innovation in this segment, with their latest solar modules achieving conversion efficiencies exceeding 21%. The segment's strong performance is further supported by decreasing production costs, making crystalline silicon panels increasingly cost-competitive for both utility-scale and rooftop installations across South Africa.

Thin Film Segment in South Africa Solar PV Market

The thin-film solar segment represents a smaller but technologically significant portion of the South African solar PV market. This technology offers unique advantages such as better performance in high-temperature conditions and low-light situations, making it particularly suitable for certain specialized applications in South Africa's diverse climate conditions. Thin-film modules, including technologies like amorphous silicon (a-Si), cadmium telluride (CdTe), and copper indium gallium selenide (CIGS), are gaining traction in specific applications where traditional crystalline panels may not be optimal. The segment's growth is supported by ongoing research and development activities aimed at improving efficiency and reducing production costs. The flexibility and lightweight nature of thin-film panels make them particularly attractive for building-integrated photovoltaic (BIPV) applications and installations where weight constraints are a concern.

Segment Analysis: By End User

Utility Segment in South Africa Solar PV Market

The utility segment dominates the South African solar PV market, holding approximately 50% market share in 2024. This significant market position is driven by the country's ambitious decarbonization plans and transition goals toward clean energy. The segment's growth is further supported by various private players investing in utility-scale solar power plants to support the country's energy needs. The implementation of carbon taxes in South Africa, coupled with government initiatives like the Risk Mitigation Power Procurement Program (RMIPPPP), has created a favorable environment for utility-scale solar development. Major financial institutions and development organizations are actively investing in renewable energy projects, with companies like Norfund and CDC Group committing significant funds to support pipeline projects exceeding 2.4 GW of renewable energy capacity.

Residential Segment in South Africa Solar PV Market

The residential segment is projected to experience the fastest growth during the forecast period 2024-2029, driven by increasing adoption of small-scale distributed solar power installations. This growth is supported by declining solar PV costs and supportive government programs such as the National Solar Water Heater Programme. The Department of Mineral Resources and Energy's plans to strengthen its National Electrification Programme is expected to boost residential solar adoption. The segment's growth is further catalyzed by the increasing personal incomes, rapid urbanization, and the housing sector's considerable investment potential. The residential sector's expansion is also driven by the need for reliable power supply, as South Africa continues to face challenges with grid electricity reliability and increasing utility costs.

Remaining Segments in End User Segmentation

The Commercial and Industrial (C&I) segment maintains a substantial presence in the South African solar PV market, representing a crucial component of the country's solar energy landscape. This segment benefits from the affordability of solar technology and the pressing need for reliable power supply among businesses. The C&I sector's adoption of solar PV systems is driven by higher electricity costs and optimal use profiles, making rooftop solar installations particularly attractive for large roof spaces. The segment's growth is supported by various financing options from commercial banks and the increasing trend of power purchase agreements (PPAs) in the commercial sector, making solar energy more accessible to businesses of all sizes.

Segment Analysis: By Deployment

Ground-Mounted Segment in South Africa Solar PV Market

The ground-mounted segment has established itself as the dominant deployment method in South Africa's solar photovoltaic market, commanding approximately 64% of the total installed capacity in 2024. Ground-mounted solar PV systems are particularly favored for large-scale utility projects due to their scalability and optimal positioning capabilities. These systems utilize various mounting technologies including foundation mounts, pole mounts, and ballasted footing mounts, each offering specific advantages for different terrain and project requirements. The segment's growth is primarily driven by the South African government's Renewable Energy Independent Power Producer Procurement Program (REIPPPP), which has been instrumental in developing large-scale solar projects. Ground-mounted installations offer several key advantages including ideal angle positioning for maximum solar energy production, easier maintenance access, better panel longevity, greater potential for future expansion, and enhanced cooling efficiency due to better air circulation. The segment has also benefited from significant international investment and support, particularly following South Africa's commitment to reduce carbon emissions and phase out coal power plants.

Rooftop Segment in South Africa Solar PV Market

The solar rooftop segment represents a crucial component of South Africa's distributed generation strategy, particularly in urban and industrial areas. Rooftop solar installations are increasingly popular among commercial, industrial, and residential customers seeking to reduce their dependence on the national grid and manage rising electricity costs. These systems typically feature capacities ranging from 5-20 kilowatts for residential buildings and 100 kilowatts to 1 megawatt for commercial structures, with some industrial installations reaching up to 10 megawatts. The segment has gained significant traction due to the country's frequent power outages and the implementation of supportive policies such as feed-in tariffs in cities like Cape Town. The growth in this segment is further supported by declining solar PV system costs, improved technology efficiency, and increasing awareness of renewable energy benefits among property owners. Additionally, the rooftop segment benefits from minimal land requirement constraints, making it particularly attractive in densely populated urban areas where ground space is limited or expensive.