Autonomous Train Market - Growth, Trends, COVID-19 Impact, and Forecast (2022 - 2027)

The Autonomous train market is segmented by Automation Grade (GoA 1, GoA 2, GoA 3, and GoA 4), by Application (Passenger and Freight), by Technology (CBTC, ERTMS, ATC, and PTC)), and by Geography ( North America, Europe, Asia-Pacific, and Rest of the World). The report offers market size and forecast for Autonomous Train Market in Value (USD million) for all the above segments.

Market Snapshot

Autonomous Train Market Overview
Study Period: 2018-2027
Base Year: 2021
Fastest Growing Market: Asia Pacific
Largest Market: Asia Pacific
CAGR: 5.61 %
Autonomous Train Market Key Players

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Market Overview

The Autonomous train market is valued at USD 7,448.05 million in 2020 and is expected to reach USD 10,222.75 million by 2026 registering a CAGR of 5.61% during the forecast period.

The Covid-19 pandemic had a negative influence on the railway industry across the world. With increased preference for personal transport, the likelihood of choosing trains for transportation has gone down. However, with the rising concerns over emissions, the need for using public transportation and pooling is expected to help the trains market grow.

Increasing electrification across the global transportation industry irrespective of the mode of transport has led to the development of automated transport methods and trains have been at the forefront of transport automation after road transport. In addition, the increasing need for efficiency and safety can drive the existing railway operators towards automation.

However, as market is still in a nascent stage, the need for huge investments for R&D of the equipment anticipated to restrain growth of the market. Asia-Pacific region and North America expected to witness significant growth during the forecast period.

Asia-Pacific has one of the largest rail networks across the world and is expected to show the highest growth in the autonomous train market. Technology advancement is expected to accelerate rail mobility gradually in improving adoption rate of autonomous trains in North America.

Scope of the Report

Autonomous trains are operated automatically without any human intervention and are monitored from the control station. In case of any obstacle incurred in the route, a message will be sent to the operational control center and to the attendant on the train. The Autonomous train market report offers the latest trends and technological developments and the market share of major players by segment.

The Scope of the report covers segmentation based on Automation Grade, Application, Technology, and Geography. By Automation Grade, the market is segmented into GoA 1, GoA 2, GoA 3, GoA 4. By Application, the market is segmented into Passenger and Freight.

By Technology, the market is segmented into CBTC, ERTMS, ATC, and PTC. By Geography, the market is segmented into North America, Europe, Asia-Pacific, and Rest of the World. For each segment, market sizing and forecast have been done on basis of value (USD million).

By Automation Grade
GoA 1
GoA 2
GoA 3
GoA 4
By Application
Passenger
Freight
By Technology
CBTC
ERTMS
ATC
PTC
Geography
North America
Europe
Asia-Pacific
Rest of the World

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Key Market Trends

Passenger Segment Expected to Dominate the Market during Forecast Period

Rail is considered as one of the safest modes of land transport and more attractive to the customer as this offers a much better service to potential passengers and drives an increase in passenger numbers. The demand for safer and efficient transport is increasing from consumers across the world highlighting importance of adoption of advanced technology-based transport i.e., autonomous trains for commuting purpose.

Currently, rail has been identified as one of the most energy-efficient transport modes, accounting for 8% of global motorized passenger movements and 7% of freight but consuming only 2% of transport energy. However, the passenger train segment of the market has suffered a loss due to pandemic owing to trade and travel restrictions imposed worldwide. 

The highest rail network China witnessed a downfall of 39.4% in 2020 compared to 2019, but as economic activities resumed market expected to gain momentum during the forecast period. In addition, latest developments like testing driverless passenger cars to further propel the growth of the market. For instance,

  • In March 2021 by SNCF and its partners, a prototype has been put for the test in northern region of Hauts-de-France. The company has set goal to provide fully automated prototypes running by 2023 and to fully expand the train operation by the year 2025.

In wake of such advancements and instances, passenger trains segment of market expected to contribute significantly for overall development of autonomous trains market during the forecast period.

Autonomous Train Market Key Trends

Asia-Pacific Region Expected to Witness Significant Growth During the Forecast Period

Asia-Pacific region anticipated to hold significant share in the market during the forecast period. It has one of the largest rail networks across the world owing to the presence of major countries, such as India, China, and Japan. In addition, public transportation is also very popular in these countries, such as in India, where people often travel by metro for daily commuting. Due to this, the railway network plays a very significant role in the economic development of countries in Asia-Pacific. For instance,

  • The installed base of metro-rail rolling stock in India is expected to increase to 5,458 railcars by 2023, owing to huge demand for commuter transportation in metropolitan cities. A total of 3,343 railcars are planned to be added to the metro-rail network, over a period of five years from 2018 to 2023.

Of these, contracts for 1,758 railcars have already been awarded. Such factors can boost the demand for autonomous trains equipped with GoA 3 and GoA 4 for metro trains in the region. Asia-Pacific is also characterized by the presence of both developed and developing economies, such as Singapore, Malaysia, Indonesia, and Bangladesh. New rail projects for urban passenger transportation, as well as for the replacement and maintenance of the existing fleet, are expected to drive the market in these countries. For instance,

  • During 2018, Singapore Land Transport Authority (LTA) ordered 66 six-car train-sets for its North-South and East-West lines from Bombardier. Also, during 2019, LTA in Singapore announced its plan to purchase 12 more trainsets from Alstom to deploy them on the Circle Line Stage 6 extension. These are expected to be delivered from 2024.

Therefore, owing to the above factors, the deployment of autonomous trains in the region is expected to observe significant growth during the forecast period.

Autonomous Train Market Growth Rate

Competitive Landscape

The Autonomous Train market is a highly consolidated market owing to the presence of few major players such as Hitachi Rail STS (Ansaldo), Alstom, Thales, Siemens AG, and many more. In addition, as the railway industry is still in the nascent stage of automation, the need for huge investments for R&D of the equipment to meet international standards is high making it difficult for new companies to enter the market, leaving the field to major players.

Some of the major players in the market are adopting various growth strategies such as mergers, acquisitions, collaborations, and agreements to strengthen their position in the market. For instance,

  • In August 2021, Hitachi Rail STS (Ansaldo) entered an agreement with the Thales Group to acquire the Ground Transportation System business of the Thales Group company. As a result of this agreement, Hitachi Rail is expected to drive growth by expanding the scale of its rail signaling systems business and further advance its rail automation systems business globally.
  • In August 2021, Siemens Mobility was awarded a contract to design, install, and commission the first Communications-Based Train Control (CBTC) technology for Malaysia and Singapore cross-border link trains. The company also announced plans to deliver the CBTC system for the Brazilian metro line in May 2021.

Recent Developments

  • In September 2021, Mitsubishi Heavy Industries Engineering partnered with Dubai Metro and Dubai tram in a joint venture with Keolis. It successfully began operations of Dubai metro, a fully automated driverless rail system. The services are operated through Keolis-MHI Rail Management Operation LLC (Keolis-MHI).
  • In July 2021, Ningbo Rail Transit Group and CRRC developed the first smart metro train started from Ningbo metro line 5, with the capability to achieve fully autonomous operation and management, including autonomous running, return, inspection and repair, increasing the operating efficiency.
  • In May 2021, Kawasaki Heavy Industries launched the new remote track monitoring services in North America equipped with information and communications technology. This system is expected to improve trackside efficiency and deal with any irregularities for the safety of trains and passengers.
  • In January 2021, Alstom completed the acquisition of Bombardier Transportation, thereby, creating a competitive manufacturer on a global scale in mobility and rail transport, moving toward greener transportation globally.

Table of Contents

  1. 1. INTRODUCTION

    1. 1.1 Study Assumptions

    2. 1.2 Scope of the Study

  2. 2. RESEARCH METHODOLOGY

  3. 3. EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

  4. 4. MARKET DYNAMICS

    1. 4.1 Market Drivers

    2. 4.2 Market Restraints

    3. 4.3 Industry Attractiveness - Porter's Five Force Analysis

      1. 4.3.1 Threat of New Entrants

      2. 4.3.2 Bargaining Power of Consumers

      3. 4.3.3 Bargaining Power of Suppliers

      4. 4.3.4 Threat of Substitute Products

      5. 4.3.5 Intensity of Competitive Rivalry

  5. 5. MARKET SEGMENTATION

    1. 5.1 By Automation Grade

      1. 5.1.1 GoA 1

      2. 5.1.2 GoA 2

      3. 5.1.3 GoA 3

      4. 5.1.4 GoA 4

    2. 5.2 By Application

      1. 5.2.1 Passenger

      2. 5.2.2 Freight

    3. 5.3 By Technology

      1. 5.3.1 CBTC

      2. 5.3.2 ERTMS

      3. 5.3.3 ATC

      4. 5.3.4 PTC

    4. 5.4 Geography

      1. 5.4.1 North America

      2. 5.4.2 Europe

      3. 5.4.3 Asia-Pacific

      4. 5.4.4 Rest of the World

  6. 6. COMPETITIVE LANDSCAPE

    1. 6.1 Vendor Market Share

    2. 6.2 Company Profiles

      1. 6.2.1 Siemens AG

      2. 6.2.2 Alstom S.A

      3. 6.2.3 Thales Group

      4. 6.2.4 Hitachi Rail STS (Ansaldo STS)

      5. 6.2.5 Mitsubishi Heavy Industries Ltd

      6. 6.2.6 Kawasaki Heavy Industries

      7. 6.2.7 Construcciones y Auxiliar de Ferrocarriles (CAF)

      8. 6.2.8 CRRC Corporation Limited

      9. 6.2.9 Wabtec Corporation

      10. 6.2.10 Ingeteam Corporation SA

  7. 7. MARKET OPPORTUNITIES AND FUTURE TRENDS

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Frequently Asked Questions

The Autonomous Train Market market is studied from 2018 - 2026.

The Autonomous Train Market is growing at a CAGR of 5.61% over the next 5 years.

The Autonomous Train Market is valued at 7448 Million USD in 2018.

The Autonomous Train Market is valued at 10222 Million USD in 2026.

Asia Pacific is growing at the highest CAGR over 2021- 2026.

Asia Pacific holds highest share in 2020.

Hitachi Rail STS (Ansaldo), Alstom SA, Thales Group, Siemens AG, Mitsubishi Heavy Industries Ltd are the major companies operating in Autonomous Train Market.

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