Analysis Of Key Sectors Of Venezuela : Agriculture, Dairy, Meat, Fruits and Vegetables, Water, Manufacturing and Construction along with production and consumption data (2004 - 2018))

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Since 1998, the Venezuelan economy has had modest per capita GDP growth. But much higher growth has been recorded since political stability was restored and the government got control over the oil industry. Measuring from 2004, when the economy reached it pre-recession peak, GDP per person has grown by an average of 2.5 % annually.

This growth led to a large reduction in poverty and extreme poverty, as well as numerous other gains in health care and education due to increases in social spending. And as high as Venezuelas 22 percent annual rate of inflation has been, it was much worse in the pre-Chávez years. Nonetheless most prognoses remain gloomy.

Venezuelas current growth is generally described as unsustainable. In some scenarios, the government will have to cut spending and throw theeconomy into a downturn after the election. Others see inflation, which has fallen sharply to a more than four year low of 13.7 percent annually over the last quarter, as inevitably rebounding as price controls lose their effect, and with the added assumption that the government must devalue the currency after the election.

In standard pessimistic scenarios, inflation leads to more devaluations and more inflation, leading to increased capital flight and balance of payments crises. Other analysts reach similar results from predictions of catastrophic levels of public debt. For all of these reasons and more, Venezuelas recovery is once again seen as something that cannot be sustained. However, these pessimistic forecasts have been far off the mark for most of the past decade. We find that Venezuelas current economic growth is sustainable and could continue at the current pace or higher for many years.

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